Leach: “Luke’s starting” against Oregon State

Prior to his injury in the second half against the Boise State Broncos, Luke Falk struggled mightily to move the offense at all. WSU’s lone touchdown in the first half came on a defensive scoop and score from Robert Taylor and a perfectly healthy Falk was briefly benched for Tyler Hilinski in the 3rd quarter. After Falk’s injury, he would not see the field again as the redshirt sophomore helped engineer WSU’s first 21-point fourth quarter comeback since 1984.

Hilinski certainly seemed to command the offense better Saturday, finishing 25-for-33 with 240 yards passing, three touchdowns and a pick. Falk struggled mightily, going 24-for-34 for 193 yards, 59 coming on a pass to Renard Bell near the end of the first half.

So there was at least some question as to who would be under center against the Oregon State Beavers this Saturday. Head coach Mike Leach put an end to any speculation early in the week.

Falk has struggled not just this year, but stretching back to the final three games of 2016 as well. The good news is the Oregon State Beavers are likely just what the doctor ordered for Falk to get himself right mentally and physically. Here’s his career line against the Beavs:

126 for 157, 1,293 yards, 16 touchdowns, 2 interceptions

That’s … quite good. OSU is a team Falk has feasted on and he’ll need to do it again this Saturday if for no other reason than to get a little confidence back in himself.

SEC Power Rankings: South Carolina rises after Week 2 win over Missouri

Yeah, there were some straight up head scratchers this week in the SEC. Multiple teams almost dropped their cupcakes, one team made a statement, and one team hurt themselves badly. I’m probably gonna get called a major homer for one of my rankings. With that being said, let’s get her done.

14. Texas A&M Aggies (LW: 11)

Nicholls St. v Texas A&M

Nicholls St. v Texas A&M

Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

The SEC Network literally aired a special during SEC Nation about cupcake games. An offensive lineman from Nicholls, Texas A&M’s opponent from Saturday, literally admitted that they knew they were cupcakes and were supposed to lose. With less than ten minutes in the 4th quarter, this game was tied at 14 a piece. Had Kevin Sumlin lost this game, he would’ve been fired. The Aggies are going to be putrid this year. They’ll be lucky to win six games.

13. Kentucky Wildcats (LW: 14)

Eastern Kentucky v Kentucky

Eastern Kentucky v Kentucky

Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images

The only reason Kentucky bumped up a spot from last week is because of how awful Texas A&M is. The Wildcats struggled just as much as the Aggies, but Kentucky is 2-0 and A&M is 1-1. They held a three point lead over Eastern Kentucky going in to halftime, who is a team that will probably end up 6-6. Which is probably what Kentucky’s final record will be.

12. Vanderbilt Commodores (LW: 13)

Alabama A&M v Vanderbilt

Alabama A&M v Vanderbilt

Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images

The Commodores can thank A&M and UK for sucking it up the last two weeks for this spot. Neither of these three teams have proven little to nothing to me. Vanderbilt is 2-0 for the first time since Derek Mason took over, and they have held their opponents to 3 points per game. That is a good stat, but the opponents were Alabama A&M and Middle Tennessee State. Those aren’t exactly great teams. We’ll know more after the next two weeks, when they play Alabama and Kansas State.

11. Missouri Tigers (LW: 10)

South Carolina v Missouri

South Carolina v Missouri

Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images

Yeah, Mizzou put up 73 on an FCS opponent and everyone called them world beaters. This week, they played South Carolina at home and scored 13 on a defense that isn’t supposed to be great by any means. Drew Lock did get screwed with a couple of drops from his WRs, but that doesn’t excuse 13 points. They play Purdue and Auburn in back to back weeks, so the schedule doesn’t get any easier.

10. Ole Miss Rebels (LW: 12)

Tennessee Martin v Mississippi

Tennessee Martin v Mississippi

Photo by Butch Dill/Getty Images

Well, through two week Shea Patterson has tore up South Alabama and UT Martin. People think he is nothing short of a god for this, but I don’t. I think Ole Miss is an average team, and will only go down as the year goes on. I don’t get his hype train, mainly because the talent around him is only going to decrease as time rolls on. The Rebels have Alabama in three weeks, so they better get prepared.

Indiana State v Tennessee

Indiana State v Tennessee

Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images

My hate for Tennessee will never allow them to be high on these rankings unless they go 15-0. Even then, I doubt I will give them credit. They barely scraped out a week one win against Georgia Tech, and now have to travel to Florida in a big game for the East. The Gators will be a very good measurement stick for where they are after next week’s game.

8. Mississippi State Bulldogs (LW: 8)

NCAA Football: Mississippi State at Louisiana Tech

NCAA Football: Mississippi State at Louisiana Tech

Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

The Bulldogs put on an offensive showcase last week, putting 57 on LA Tech and Skip Holtz. State hasn’t had anything but two cupcake games to open up the season and make them feel good about themselves. Unlike other teams in the SEC, they’ve dominated their cupcakes. They have LSU coming in to town this week, so we will know if the Bulldogs are the real deal or not.

7. Arkansas Razorbacks (LW: 6)

NCAA Football: Texas Christian at Arkansas

NCAA Football: Texas Christian at Arkansas

Joey Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Austin Allen was on his back for a lot of this game and the offensive line looked pretty bad. TCU beat the Razorbacks 28-7, and Arkansas couldn’t get their offense going at all. The Horned Frogs usually have a pretty high powered offense, so giving up 28 points wasn’t the entire problem. Hopefully Bret Bielema can offensively get them right so they won’t drop a stinker to Texas A&M.

6. Florida Gators (LW: 7)

NCAA Football: Florida at Michigan

NCAA Football: Florida at Michigan

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Florida didn’t even play this week and they moved up a spot. Their game was cancelled because of Hurricane Irma, and our prayers and thoughts are with everyone that has been affected by this. If the Gators can find an identity on offense, they should be able to handle the Volunteers in the Swamp.

5. Georgia Bulldogs (LW: 4)

NCAA Football: Georgia at Notre Dame

NCAA Football: Georgia at Notre Dame

Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Georgia just went on the road and beat a ranked Notre Dame team. A team that will end up 5-7, and this is one of those teams that is always overhyped and ranked heading in to the season (looking at you Southern Cal). Part of this is my hate for Georgia, and the other part is me being realistic. Georgia is the team everyone is expecting to win the SEC East, but I don’t know if they have the passing game to do it. Jake Fromm ended with a QBR of 13.2, which is atrocious. If Sony Michel and Nick Chubb weren’t on that team, they would have scored 6 points.

4. South Carolina Gamecocks (LW: 5)

NCAA Football: South Carolina at Missouri

NCAA Football: South Carolina at Missouri

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

I realize to 99.9% of you, this seems like a homer answer. Part of it is, part of it is being realistic. South Carolina has the potential to start the season 4-0, which no one except me said they could do. The Cocks held Missouri to 13 points on the road, when the previous week they scored 70+. The defense for South Carolina is starting to play like the better teams of the Spurrier era, which is a great sign. I think Georgia doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep with South Carolina. Boom, bold prediction for you.

3. Auburn Tigers (LW: 3)

NCAA Football: Auburn at Clemson

NCAA Football: Auburn at Clemson

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Auburn went on the road and played one of the best defensive lines in the country. It showed, with Jarrett Stidham getting sacked 11 times. I think they have the defense and run game to compete in the West, and they stayed in competition with the defending National Champions for all of the game. I give credit where credit is due, but the passing attack from the Tigers is going to have to improve if they want to have a legit chance to win the West.

NCAA Football: Chattanooga at Louisiana State

NCAA Football: Chattanooga at Louisiana State

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Honestly, the defense for LSU has looked great but the opponents have been BYU and Chattanooga. Their offense has looked pretty good so far, but the defense has a real test next week with Nick Fitzgerald coming in to town. I think LSU will be a contender in the West right there with Auburn and Alabama, and it is going to be a very interesting year in the SEC.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (same)

NCAA Football: Fresno State at Alabama

NCAA Football: Fresno State at Alabama

Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

It’s Alabama. They handed Florida State with a crappy night offensively and beat Fresno State 41-10. Don’t know what else anyone could want.

Keys to Success for Kentucky Football in 2017

 

Kentucky Football: Wide receiver position will be big key in 2017 by Brandon Rue

Off a promising 2016 season, Kentucky Football hopes to build on that momentum and achieve greater success this year.

Big Blue fans hope the Wildcats keep moving forward in the always-tough SEC. To do so, Coach Mark Stoops‘ squad will need to improve in some facets, maintain performance in others and need a little reversal of fortune in a luck category. And yes, mentioning luck to a Kentucky Football fan can result in uncontrollable body spasms. But hang in there, it will all make sense.

Turnover Margin

The Wildcats went 7-6 last season, including the Taxslayer Bowl loss to Georgia Tech, despite a terrible showing in one of the game’s most important statistics. Kentucky Football was minus seven in turnover margin. The Cats ranked 107 out of 128 FBS teams in that category. It is actually pretty remarkable they had a winning record in spite of that ugly number.

UK had 28 turnovers, while their opponents gave the ball up 21 times. The composition of those turnovers is where Kentucky Football has a reasonable expectation for improvement.

Interceptions were pretty much a wash, with the Cats picking off 13 passes versus 12 by their foes. Intercepting passes is in large part a skill. The Cats’ defensive backfield is probably the team’s strongest unit.

Safety Mike Edwards is the team’s top NFL draft prospect and is expected to see time at nickel back this year. Derrick Baity and Chris Westry return as starters on the corners. Newcomers like Jordan Griffin. Yusuf Corker and Davonte Robinson add depth to the unit. The Cats certainly have the potential to add to that interception total.

 

South Bound & Down 2dSEC Football: Top 10 games of the 2017 season

The Luck Factor

Fumbles are where Kentucky Football went wrong on turnover margin last season. The Cats lost 16 of the 23 fumbles they committed. They recovered eight of 18 balls on the ground from their opposition.

There is a skill component to forcing fumbles, but recovering fumbles is largely a function of luck. The bounce of the ball. Particularly damaging to Kentucky Football were scoop-and-score fumbles where the defense took the turnover on in for a touchdown without their offense even needing to take the field.

With improvement in this area to just a break even level, the Cats can get that turnover margin closer to the middle of the pack.  Which could lead to another win or two.

Success In Close Games

Kentucky Football was outscored 407-390 on the season, but still achieved that winning record by gong 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Not to get too stat nerdy here, but a high winning percentage in close games is hard to sustain season to season. If you are into math, it is called regression to the mean.

That doesn’t necessarily mean the Cats will fall back this season. The reason why is tied to the turnover factor discussed earlier. A couple of those fumbles returned for touchdowns were in wins versus Vanderbilt and Mississippi State.

Those plays turned what should have been comfortable wins into nail biters. Another came on Kentucky’s first possession in the bowl game. That play put the team in deficit from which they never recovered. Eliminate those costly turnovers and a regression in the close game results may not be so devastating.

Quarterback

The list of Kentucky Football quarterbacks who led the team to seven wins in one season is pretty short. Stephen Johnson has to be the most unlikely member of that fraternity.

The unheralded junior college transfer was barely on any Cat fan’s radar when the 2016 season started. When Drew Barker went out for the season early in the third game, Johnson stepped in and led the team to wins in seven of the next 10 games.

Showing perfect timing, Johnson saved his best performance for the regular season finale against arch-rival Louisville. He outdueled Heisman winner Lamar Jackson and led the Cats to a 41-38 win, bringing the Governor’s Cup back to Lexington for the first time since 2010.

Johnson showed a great touch on the deep ball, and more importantly great poise. His unflappable demeanor is just want a team needs behind center.

Going into this season, Johnson will need improvement in two specific areas. He gave up too many of those fumbles, especially in the backfield where they were converted into instant scores by the opposing defense.

That habit has to stop. Johnson also needs to improve his accuracy on short and intermediate throws. Tight end C.J. Conrad has been grossly under utilized since arriving on campus. Johnson struggled mightily to connect with Conrad on short throws over the middle. Hitting those attempts will loosen up defenses focused on stopping star running back Benny Snell, Jr.

If Johnson should struggle, all eyes will turn to Barker. From all accounts he has performed well in camp. If he has recovered from back surgery and can take a hit, he could step in if needed. Not to be forgotten is redshirt freshman Gunnar Hoak, who has looked sharp in the last two spring games.

Putting It All Together

Kentucky Football has reason to be optimistic heading into the 2017 season. They have lots of returning starters on both sides of ball. The recruiting success of Coach Stoops’ staff has built what appears to be the deepest Wildcat team in many years.

The schedule is tough, but that is a way of life in the SEC. Wildcat fans will eagerly await the season opener September 2nd at Southern Mississippi and see if the Cats can build on their momentum.

10 thoughts on Ole Miss’ football season, which will be as fun as it will be meaningless

1. Ole Miss football’s 2017 season is already done-for. That’s a fact of NCAA and universal reality. It’s constitutional law, in fact. The Rebels self-imposed a postseason ban stemming from eight additional NCAA allegations against the program out on the recruiting trail this year. Those allegations are egregious, and they could bring down the hammer on a club that’s coach straight-up dared the entire internet to find evidence of their impermissible benefits in 2013. Well, they sure as shit did. Forget this season before you remember too much of it, regardless of what happens this season.

2. Ole Miss football could be very good this season. Not, like, top-tier, knock-your-teeth-out-of-your-mouth good, but they could make trouble for legitimate contenders. The Alabama game is always cheery. The LSU game consistently wades through an oil field of non-production on offense then ends up being squirrelly nevertheless. Everyone in the world should watch Arkansas and Ole Miss claw each other’s faces every year, because that particular bear fight makes for compelling television. What we’re saying here is that this year’s Ole Miss Rebels are extremely watchable.

3. This season comes with a hailstorm of uncertainty, anxiety, and downright terror. Last year I naively wrote that a full football season was Ole Miss’ ultimate release from the NCAA bullshit, and I was clearly wrong. DEAD WRONG. Many, all of us, have been wrong in our lives, and for that I’m sorry. We as a website didn’t really focus on football. Especially not this summer.

4. Ole Miss should — and hopefully will — become this year’s premier CHAOS TEAM. The team you should tune in to watch no matter who they play. Beat Bama. Lose to Cal. Play Texas A&M into 10 overtimes and watch the sun come up in the process. Do everything in your power to screw the lives and well-beings of those in your path. Do so in the most hilariously dramatic fashion imaginable. Do so when the game’s on the line with four seconds left and you’re stuck on your own 23 yard line. Do so because they hate you, and you hate them in return.

5. There’s a certain sort of relief in rooting for a team that won’t see postseason play in 2017, regardless of whether they go undefeated or winless. Indeed, the Rebs will probably fall somewhere in between those two poles, but please remember: NONE OF THIS MATTERS. Loss? Don’t go sulk. It doesn’t matter. BAD loss? Go have a beer and a cigarette and a joint and just chill out. None of this season matters. They’re playing for themselves, and in a sense, that’s the freest form of artistic, athletic expression. These guys will do what they do for each other. Not for you, not for me, not for the Bama haters, and certainly not for ESPN assholes. This team is wholly self-contained, unto itself, and they will hopefully play the shit out of themselves for this very reason.

6. Matt Luke is most definitely not coaching for his job, because his job is playing with house money. Play-calling this season will hopefully be rad as all hell, especially on offense. Let’s stop there.

7. This offense can be ridiculous, and if you like big, spectacular, ranging plays across the vast acreage of a football field, watch Ole Miss every week. They will undoubtedly deliver.

8. CHAOS TEAM. They can beat anybody, and they can lose to anybody. They can do both in spectacular fashion.

9. The NCAA Committee on Infractions is sitting down with Ole Miss people on Sept. 11. Whatever happens there and then — and it could be mortifying — it will throw a giant monkey wrench into the college football season machine. You’ll read about it everywhere, and we’ll undoubtedly deal with it on Red Cup Rebellion terms. Either way, that’s during the Cal game week, and, well, here take this life-vest and see what happens.

10. So let’s enjoy this huge, dumb spectacle. Ole Miss is under the microscope, which is itself pointed directly at the sun, and this whole affair could burst into flames sometime midseason. But they’re going to play a full college football schedule, beneath and apposite of whatever the hell is happening with the NCAA.

They’re going to play fucking football.

Colorado Buffaloes’ DE Frank Umu Suspended

The Colorado Buffaloes were needing a few breaks for them to have a respectable defense, but thanks to multiple suspensions over the summer, the defense has taken a step back. The latest suspension is that of Frank Umu, a sophomore defensive end who was expected to play a significant role this season.

Umu, a 6’4, 300-lbs. defensive end from Littleton, was suspended indefintely for a violation of team rules. The Buffs’ defensive depth has taken a hit with the indefinite suspension to defensive back Anthony Julmisse and the dismissal of linebacker N.J. Falo, but because the nature of Umu’s suspension isn’t anything to do with legal issues, his suspension will be short.

Umu will miss the Rocky Mountain Showdown, which is unfortunate considering his history with Colorado State. He originally committed to the Rams out of high school, but once head coach Jim McElwain left CSU for Florida, Umu switched his commitment to Colorado. Umu never wanted to be at CSU — it was his first significant scholarship offer and he was waiting for a better offer — so he jumped at the opportunity to be a Buffalo.

After winning the Dan Stavely Award for most improve defensive lineman, Umu was challenging for a starting position as a 3-4 defensive end, but now the Buffs will have to look elsewhere for a short while. Expect Leo Jackson, Timothy Coleman and Jase Franke to see the majority of snaps at that position.

LSU AD Says BYU Game ‘Almost Certainly’ Won’t Be in Houston Due to Hurricane

NRG Stadium is seen before an NFL football preseason game between the Houston Texans and the New England Patriots, Saturday, Aug. 19, 2017, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)

Eric Christian Smith/Associated Press

The LSU Tigers are set to open their 2017 season Saturday against the BYU Cougars in Houston’s NRG Stadium, but with now-Tropical Storm Harvey causing flooding in and around Houston, a venue change is looking very likely.

The Advocate‘s Ross Dellenger provided an update from LSU athletic director Joe Alleva about Saturday’s game:

This would be the second year in a row inclement weather has pushed LSU to alter its schedule.

Hurricane Matthew forced LSU and Florida to reach an agreement that saw the Tigers welcome in the Gators for a 16-10 defeat last November. Since the Gators lost what would’ve been a home game, they’ll get to host LSU in back-to-back years (2017 and 2018).

In a tweet providing a forecast for the rainfall expected over the next week, the National Weather Service said Harvey is “unprecedented” and “beyond anything experienced”:

NWS Houston tweeted some residents can expect 10 to 25 inches of rain over the next five days. According to the National Weather Service, 10.34 inches was Houston’s previous record for the highest single-day rainfall.

Before LSU and BYU are set to face off, the Houston Texans are scheduled to play the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday in NRG Stadium. The team announced Saturday it’s still determining whether Harvey will impact the game.

Oregon State vs Colorado State Week 0: What We Learned About the Beavers

Colorado State capitalized on 5 Oregon State turnovers, out-gained the Beavers 525-456 yds., and triumphantly outscored the Beavers 34-7 in the second half as they defeated the Beavers 58-27 in front of a sold out crowd in their brand new stadium. The Rams were led by their Senior Quarterback Nick Stevens who was impressive going 26-39 with 3 TDs and 1 Int. Senior WR Michael Gallup was also impressive with 11 catches for 134 yds..

First off, credit the Colorado State Rams for an phenomenal performance in their beautiful brand-new stadium. The Rams were the better team yesterday, and they are going to be a dominant force in the Mountain West this season. Credit the Rams Defense for taking away the Beaver running game in the 2nd half and pressuring Beaver QB Jake Luton into making key mistakes. Head Coach Mike Bobo has done a great job in Fort Collins. He coached an excellent game against the Beavers, and he has his squad prepared for great things in 2017. It will be interesting to see how his team will do against Colorado, on the road against top-ranked Alabama, and against Boise State.

On the other hand, it’s back to the drawing board for Oregon State. Sure, Colorado State looked impressive yesterday, but there is no excuse for Oregon State to get pushed around the way they did against Colorado State. Head Coach Gary Andersen said it best when he described the Beaver performance as, “embarrassing.” Yes, the high altitude was a factor, and the field conditions were hot (117 Degrees Fahrenheit on the field!), but it didn’t seem to bother Colorado State as much. The Beavers still have a ways to go to learn how to fight through adversity. Although, yesterday was mostly miserable for Beaver Nation there were some bright spots. The passing game for the most part looked much improved, and the Beavers were an impressive 10-16 on 3rd Down. Here are some things we learned from the Beavers’s loss in Fort Collins.

It seems the Passing Game has Improved

Jake Luton looks like he could eventually be the real deal at the Quarterback position for the Beavers. Despite his three interceptions, Luton was 27-47 with 3 TDs and threw for 307 yds. WR Jordan Villamin had a nice day with 7 catches for 77 yds. TE Noah Togiai had an impressive day with 7 catches for 67 yds. and 1 TD (Should have been 2, but Beavers were robbed on an obvious TD on instant replay). Although, the passing game looked much improved, there were plays that Jake Luton and the Beaver Coaching staff will look at on tape and wonder what could have been. The Beavers had open receivers, but missed them thanks to Colorado State’s pressure and not being able to connect on the deep balls. Although, it wasn’t the day the Beaver Offense wanted in the passing game, the potential is definitely there.

The Defense Needs Tons of Improvement:

On Colorado State’s first possession the Beaver Defense looked fast and aggressive. They did an impressive job holding the Rams to a field goal in the first half after Trevon Bradford’s fumble. Other than that, the rest of the game was a train-wreck. We don’t need to relive all the details but the Front 7 was consistently pushed around and could not get to QB Nick Stevens. In addition, tackling was also an issue. The major key was that the Beavers were not able to get Colorado State off the field, which caused the Beavers to wear down. The Rams were 8-14 on 3rd Down Conversions. In addition, the Beaver Defense looked lost, and they frequently missed assignments.

5 Turnovers, Ugh!

All 5 turnovers proved to be disastrous. Especially Luton’s pick 6 he threw when the Beavs only trailed by 7. Luton overthrew a wide open Isaiah Hodgins and the ball was tipped and returned for a Colorado State Touchdown. Also, another crucial turnover was Trevon Bradford’s fumble when the Beavers led 17-14. It happened at a crucial time where the Beavers may have had an opportunity to drive down and take a double digit lead. The Turnovers majorly shifted momentum into Colorado States favor and prevented lots of points on the Scoreboard for the Beavers. You’ve gotta bet Coach Andersen will address ball control this week as the Beavers prepare for the home opener vs. Portland State.

Final Thoughts

It was a nightmare day at the office for the Beavers, one they and the rest of Beaver Nation would like to quickly forget. Personally, I believe this Beaver team is better than they looked against Colorado State. The talent is there, it just comes down to the execution of the game plan and making plays. Credit Colorado State for getting the Beavers off their A-game. Gary Andersen is known as a fighter, and he will not let this team give up. It is a process to turn around a losing football program, which it was just two seasons ago (2015) that the Beavers went win-less in Pac-12 play. These players will run through a wall for Coach Andersen, and I would have to bet they will not quit on him. Getting to a bowl game is still the ultimate goal for this team. The Beavers need to regroup, get healthy, and refocus as they prepare for a Portland State team that put up a great fight at BYU.

UCLA Football’s Jim Mora Can Save His Job by Keeping the Punter off the Field

Last year, after the Stanford game, I blasted UCLA coach Jim Mora for his conservative NFL mindset. In that article, I mentioned that there is statistical evidence that football coaches should never punt. Well, last month, I read a very interesting article on CougCenter.com, SB Nation’s Washington State sister site, about how Mike Leach embodies the “Never Kick” philosophy.

But, to me, the most interesting information in that article was the interactive chart that was included. The chart ranks every team in the FBS by what CougCenter calls their #NeverKick percentage. That’s the percentage of fourth downs where a team goes for the first down, rather than attemping a field goal or punting. In Washington State’s case, they were ranked #1 in the nation in 2014 with a #NeverKick percentage of almost 38%. The Cougs were 3rd in 2015 with a 34.5% #NeverKick percentage and 5th last season with a 33.3% percentage.

So, where does UCLA rank? Well, take a look for yourself. Just change the team to UCLA. Or compare the Bruins to the rest of the Pac-12 or teams from other conferences.

Of course, I analyzed the raw data as well.

UCLA on Fourth Down under Jim Mora

Year Team 4th Downs FG Attempts FGA % Punts Punt % 4th Down Attempts Never Kick % 4th Down Conversions Conversion %
Year Team 4th Downs FG Attempts FGA % Punts Punt % 4th Down Attempts Never Kick % 4th Down Conversions Conversion %
2012 UCLA 122 22 18.03% 78 63.93% 22 18.03% 11 50.00%
2013 UCLA 88 21 23.86% 55 62.50% 12 13.64% 5 41.67%
2014 UCLA 108 22 20.37% 70 64.81% 16 14.81% 9 56.25%
2015 UCLA 101 24 23.76% 64 63.37% 13 12.87% 8 61.54%
2016 UCLA 106 22 20.75% 73 68.87% 11 10.38% 5 45.45%
Total 525 111 21.14% 340 64.76% 74 14.10% 38 51.35%
Total without 2016 419 89 21.24% 267 63.72% 63 15.04% 33 52.38%
Total w/o Hi & Lo 297 67 22.56% 189 63.64% 41 13.80% 22 53.66%

Basically, the way this breaks down is that, four out of every six fourth downs, you can expect Jim Mora to punt the football, one out of every five fourth downs, you can expect a field goal attempt and, a little less than one of every six, you can expect him to go for it.

Last season was the worst of the Mora era and it’s somewhat understandable. When you can’t count on the offense to gain anything on the ground, you can’t possibly expect a coach to show any faith in his offense players and that was definitely the case last season as the Bruins only went for it on fourth down a little more than 10% of the time.

But, the year before, it wasn’t much better at just 12.87%.

The entire Mora era has been generally bad when it comes to aggressive football. Mora’s best “Never Kick” percentage was in his first season when it was just over 18%. That ranked 70th out of 123 FBS teams in 2012, while Mora’s worst was last season when the team was 124th of 128 FBS teams.

So, the question becomes what will Jim do this season? Will he be more less conservative this season knowing that his job may be on the line if he doesn’t win? Will he show a renewed faith in his offense to get the job done by going for it more on fourth down? Or, maybe more likely, will he show faith in his new offensive coordinator by letting Jedd Fisch make the call?

If the latter is the case, it might behoove us to know what Jedd Fisch’s tendencies are. So, let’s look at the college programs that Fisch has been associated with.

Jedd Fisch’s Teams on Fourth Down

Year Team 4th Downs FG Attempts FGA % Punts Punt % 4th Down Attempts Never Kick % 4th Down Conversions Conversion %
Year Team 4th Downs FG Attempts FGA % Punts Punt % 4th Down Attempts Never Kick % 4th Down Conversions Conversion %
2009 Minnesota 103 17 16.50% 71 68.93% 15 14.56% 5 33.33%
2011 Miami 79 14 17.72% 48 60.76% 17 21.52% 8 47.06%
2012 Miami 97 25 25.77% 55 56.70% 17 17.53% 8 47.06%
2015 Michigan 93 22 23.66% 55 59.14% 16 17.20% 6 37.50%
2016 Michigan 98 24 24.49% 54 55.10% 20 20.41% 13 65.00%
Total All Teams 470 102 21.70% 283 60.21% 85 18.09% 40 47.06%
Total w/o Hi & Lo 288 71 24.65% 164 56.94% 53 18.40% 27 50.94%

Generally speaking, Fisch’s teams have tended to go for it more than Mora’s teams. Fisch’s teams have broken the 20% mark on fourth down twice in his last five college football seasons including last year at Michigan and, over five seasons, Fisch’s teams go for it a little more than 18% of the time. That’s about equal to Mora’s high-water mark.

So, if Mora suddenly starts going for it a lot more often on fourth down, I would be inclined to chalk that up to either Fisch’s influence or Mora being desperate to save his job. After all, Rick Neuheisel saw a spike in his fourth down conversion attempts in his final year, but, at the same time, that continued his trend of going for it on fourth down more often every year. Mora has had the opposite trend.

But I’m willing to guess that, if Mora finishes this season going for it less than 15% of the time, UCLA will be looking for new head coach at the end of this season.

And, since AP writer Ralph Russo is convinced that former Oregon coach Chip Kelly will be hired by the Bruins, let’s look at Kelly’s fourth down tendencies to compare him against Mora.

Oregon on Fourth Down under Chip Kelly

Year Team 4th Downs FG Attempts FGA % Punts Punt % 4th Down Attempts Never Kick % 4th Down Conversions Conversion %
Year Team 4th Downs FG Attempts FGA % Punts Punt % 4th Down Attempts Never Kick % 4th Down Conversions Conversion %
2009 Oregon 104 20 19.23% 62 59.62% 22 21.15% 15 68.18%
2010 Oregon 94 17 18.09% 43 45.74% 34 36.17% 22 64.71%
2011 Oregon 94 13 13.83% 49 52.13% 31 32.98% 14 45.16%
2012 Oregon 96 14 14.58% 51 53.13% 31 32.29% 20 64.52%
Total 388 64 16.49% 205 52.84% 118 30.41% 71 60.17%
Total w/o Hi & Lo 190 27 14.21% 100 52.63% 62 32.63% 34 54.84%

Wow. Kelly looks the anti-Mora when it comes to fourth down. This may account for why Oregon football under Kelly was so explosive. Of course, at the same time, it might also have something to do with the fact that, with the exception of Kelly’s first year, the Ducks faced fourth down less than 100 times per season.

If that’s the key, then maybe Fisch does have the answers for UCLA since four of his five college teams have faced fewer than 100 fourth downs. Whereas, by comparison, only one of Mora’s five Bruin teams has faced fewer than 100 fourth downs in a season.

There are two other interesting stats that stick out to me here.

The first is the number of times teams are punting on fourth down and the second is the percentage of the time teams are punting on fourth down. Kelly’s Oregon teams never punted more than 62 times in a season and they never punted on more than 60% of their fourth down while Fisch’s last four college football teams haven’t punted more than 55 times in a season and they haven’t punted more than 61% of the time either.

Three of Mora’s teams have punted more than 70 times in a season. The 2015 team punted 64 times and only the 2013 team, at 55, punted less than 60 times all year. All of Mora’s Bruin teams have all punted at least 62.5% of the time on fourth down.

So, when the Bruins’ season starts next Sunday, we’ll finally get to see the new UCLA offense in action and we’ll be able to get a good idea right away as to the kind of season it’s going to be.

Some of the keys offensively should be punting fewer than 5 times, punting on fewer than 60% of fourth downs and keeping the number of fourth downs to 8 or less. If the Bruins can’t execute on any of these, it will be a long season and Kelly may want to email his resume to Dan Guerrero.

Go Bruins!!!

4 true freshmen break two-deep in Wisconsin’s first depth chart of 2017 season

MADISON — Five days away from their 2017 season opener against Utah State, the Wisconsin Badgers released their Week 1 depth chart on Sunday.

UW’s first regular-season two-deep lists some intriguing players on the edge of receiving playing time. They include the likes of four true freshmen, as well as various special teamers and some players at positions where the coaching staff perceives depth to be questionable after injuries.

Wisconsin’s Week 1 Depth Chart: Offense

Position First Team Second Team
Position First Team Second Team
Quarterback Alex Hornibrook Jack Coan*
Running Back Bradrick Shaw OR Chris James OR Jonathan Taylor*
Fullback Austin Ramesh Alec Ingold
Wide Receiver Jazz Peavy A.J. Taylor
Wide Receiver Quintez Cephus Danny Davis
Tight End Troy Fumagalli Kyle Penniston/Zander Neuville
Left Tackle Michael Deiter Cole Van Lanen
Left Guard Jon Dietzen OR Micah Kapoi
Center Tyler Biadasz Brett Connors
Right Guard Beau Benzschawel Jason Erdmann/David Moorman
Right Tackle David Edwards Patrick Kasl

*indicates true freshman

Since head coach Paul Chryst announced Jack Coan as the No. 2 quarterback last week, possibly the biggest call-out for the offense is the insertion of true freshman running back Jonathan Taylor as part of the first-team offense with redshirt sophomore Bradrick Shaw, redshirt junior Chris James, and Taylor listed with the “OR” notation.

“I think that we were certainly excited when Jonathan came here and then as camp progressed—and when you keep adding more and more to their plate, and with freshman in general that they can handle it—that gives you a good indication,” head coach Paul Chryst said. “Certainly he’s talented and we feel good about the number of guys at that position that will contribute.

“It progressed through camp, and I think [in] the first young-guy scrimmage, he did some good things and earned the right to get some reps with the ones and the twos.”

Taylor’s breakout performance appeared to be during a scrimmage in which linebacker T.J. Edwards admitted on Sunday he “torched” the defense twice.

“In the scrimmage, this dude, Jonathan—I call him ‘Beast Mode’—he took one on us the first play for like 60 [yards] against the ones,” safety D’Cota Dixon said on Sunday. “I was like, dang. Kid’s got some juice.”

With injuries to senior George Rushing (left leg) and Kendric Pryor (face), wide receiver Danny Davis is listed behind starter Quintez Cephus. Before practices were closed to the media, the true freshman from Springfield, Ohio, showed the ability to contribute early on.

“Danny Davis was a guy who I thought who was making plays from day one,” Edwards said. “He’s a big-play guy.”

The first-team offensive line is set with the exception of left guard, where it appears both redshirt sophomore Jon Dietzen and redshirt junior Micah Kapoi are listed with the “OR” designation. Offensive coordinator Joe Rudolph said a couple of weeks ago that Dietzen was working through something but didn’t miss a practice. Kapoi is versatile and would immediately plug in if needed. Michael Deiter indeed starts at left tackle, with redshirt freshman Tyler Biadasz asserting himself at center.

Wisconsin’s Week 1 Depth Chart: Defense

Position First Team Second Team
Position First Team Second Team
Defensive End Alec James OR Chikwe Obasih
Nose Tackle Olive Sagapolu Garrett Rand
Defensive End Conor Sheehy Isaiahh Loudermilk
Outside Linebacker Garret Dooley Andrew Van Ginkel
Inside Linebacker Ryan Connelly Arrington Farrar
Inside Linebacker T.J. Edwards Chris Orr
Outside Linebacker Leon Jacobs Tyler Johnson
Cornerback Derrick Tindal Dontye Carriere-Williams
Free Safety Natrell Jamerson Patrick Johnson
Strong Safety D’Cota Dixon Joe Ferguson
Cornerback Nick Nelson Lubern Figaro

The defensive line appears set and wasn’t too unpredictable outside of Billy Hirschfeld being left off the depth chart in favor of redshirt freshman Isaiahh Loudermilk, with Alec James and Chikwe Obasih sharing one of the first-team defensive end positions.

With the season-ending injury to redshirt sophomore Zack Baun, the Badgers will have to rely upon walk-on Tyler Johnson to slide into Baun’s spot at outside linebacker. Chryst praised Johnson on Sunday.

“I think when he came here, he really hadn’t play a lot of defense, period,” Chryst said. “[He’s] a guy who has a tremendous amount of respect from everyone on the team, coaches and players, because of the way he works and approaches it. So I think he’s put himself in position to grow and truly earn the opportunity that will be there for him. Also at that position, when you’re talking about depth, it’s been [good] to get Christian Bell back into things, and it’ll be interesting to see how he progresses.”

Edwards also echoed Chryst’s praise for Johnson on Sunday.

“Johnny, yeah, he’s been playing really well,” Edwards said. “I think even last year he was a guy who progressed a lot. Even this spring, he was playing very well. This summer camp, he’s made a lot of plays, a lot of good plays. He’s done some really good things on special teams, so he’s going to see a good amount of time on the field, and I’m excited for him. He works really hard, so he’s earned it.”

According to the released depth chart, Edwards and redshirt junior Ryan Connelly appear locked in as the first-team inside linebackers. Connelly a former walk-on, worked his way back from an injury during fall camp.

“I think Ryan’s played really well, I think that he’s playing fast, he’s trusting himself, and I think he’s a really good football player,” Chryst said. “Certainly, we think Chris [Orr] is a good football player, too, but Ryan, he’s looks comfortable and he’s played. I think that experience of playing and starting has helped him in his preparation.”

Edwards did acknowledge there was more settling to be done on the depth chart within the inside linebackers. Edwards, Connelly, and Orr will all be counted upon this season to replace Jack Cichy.

“We don’t know who’s the starters yet,” Edwards said. “We don’t know even know who the ones are at all, but I think us three have just gotten better each week. Ryan and Chris do things better than I do, and I think I do some things better than they do, so we all kind of feed off of each other and we all make each other better. It’s good to have those guys in the room just to feed off of them and see what they see to give yourself a better advantage.”

Cornerback is set with Nick Nelson and Derrick Tindal starting. The only remaining question is who will play the third defensive back spot in nickel packages: Dontye Carriere-Williams or Lubern Figaro?

Wisconsin’s Week 1 Depth Chart: Special Teams

Position First Team Second Team
Position First Team Second Team
Punter Anthony Lotti Connor Allen
Field Goal Kicker Rafael Gaglianone Zach Hintze
KO Specialist P.J. Rosowski Zach Hintze
Long Snapper Adam Bay* Josh Bernhagen
Holder Connor Allen P.J. Rosowski
Punt Returner Nick Nelson Jazz Peavy
Kickoff Returner A.J. Taylor Chris James

*indicates true freshman

Chryst feels good about his specialists with many players returning, but there is one true freshman who will play on Friday in his first-ever collegiate game: long snapper Adam Bay.

“I think Adam’s done a good job in camp and has gotten an understanding of really what that position entails,” Chryst said. “As far the kickers, [Rafael Gagalianone] has had a good camp, [kickoff specialist P.J. Rosowski’s] done a nice job. [Punter] Anthony Lotti, I think, is getting better.”

It appears cornerback Nelson will be the primary punt returner with wide receiver A.J. Taylor getting the nod as the No. 1 kickoff returner. Jazz Peavy, who returned punts last season, is the No. 2 returner in that category.

Dave Doeren a little testy when asked about the five recently disciplined players

It’s been a mere two days since the news that two NC State football players had been kicked off the team while three others had been suspended for their presence at a July party that involved drugs and alcohol. Dave Doeren is clearly already tired of this crap, given his attitude during a brief Q-and-A session with media members after practice Wednesday. (Video’s in the N&O story there.)

Like snide sarcasm-level over-it. After Joe Giglio asks him about the gap between when NC State learned of the players’ transgressions (Aug. 8) and when the announcement of punishment was made public (Aug. 22), he bristles a bit, though that is a good question. I had been wondering the same myself.

Then he walks away, reminding the reporters that oh by the way, the game is in 10 days and none of the five guys in potential legal trouble are going to play. Which, yeah, Dave, we know.

This is a pet peeve of mine, coaches reacting in a defensive manner once some bad off-the-field news breaks and people have questions about said bad news. It’s their job to face the bad and the good; that’s why they are paid the big bucks. Answering some fair questions about an incident that damages the image of your program should be an understood part of the gig, but too many coaches get antsy when they get taken outside of their comfort level.

And I know it’s no fun to have to face questions like these, especially not this close to the season, but being dismissive in a this-is-a-waste-of-time sort of way is not constructive, and it’s not a good look, either.