Duff’d It! Rankings, Week 9

5. Penn State. JT Barrett heard all the terrible things you said about him. Yes, even you, Michael. He heard you talking about how he’s overrated and how Ohio State keeps winning in spite of him, and he said, “fine, I’ll beat Penn State all by myself while looking as nondescript as possible. You’ll all see!”

Meanwhile, James Franklin and Penn State had to travel through Akron on the way to Columbus. Gonna guess they took an alternate route back.

4. Wazzu. I think I’ve finally figured out what a pirate’s worst enemy is - it’s Khalil Tate! He’s darting all over the place, scoring touchdowns, stealing your treasure, and leaving you to die in the desert. Pirates hate the desert! There’s no water to sail on, and drinking rum will just dehydrate you and make you die quicker.

3. Michigan State. On the one hand, Spartans, you lost to Northwestern in triple overtime, making Medill graduate and brand robot Darren Rovell happy; on the other, at least your L was against a football team and not $130 worth of fast food.

2. TCU. You don’t just walk into Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa and expect a win. Not anymore; after taking down OU in Norman, the Cyclones have been out for blood, and the last thing you want to see on the horizon is a bloodthirsty Cyclone, especially when that Cyclone is coached by a literal god.

1. Florida. When you travel to Jacksonville, it’s almost a guarantee it’ll take something from you. Fortunately for the Gators, it seems like they were already angling to get rid of their coach, so when the piper came calling they took one last look at Jim McElwain and tossed him into St. John’s River. Nothing left for the Gators now but to quietly finish a disappointing season with an unknown interim coach - OH DANG IT’S RANDY SHANNON Y’ALL TIME TO RENT THE PARTY BOAT

Honorable mention: Tennessee. After Saturday’s defeat to Kentucky, Butch Jones has lost what feels like his fifth “must-win” game of the season, which just goes to show that if every game is a must-win, none of them are.

Georgia Tech lost to this team and I’m still mad about it.

SEC Conference Plays of the Week

Several calls late in the UNC-Miami game might have led you to wonder if the officials had it in for the Heels. But just look at that block. That was early in the game. They weren’t being subtle about it at all!

That’s Arkansas, once again illustrating the best kind of trick play: the one that tricks yourself.

There ain’t no such thing as a free ride in the real world.... but this is the NCAA, and so Rashaad Penny can’t charge for any jersey sled rides.

Employee of the Month of the Week

Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

John Wolford, QB, Wake Forest

You can keep telling yourself Lamar Jackson is always the best player on whatever field he’s on, but that doesn’t make it true, and it wasn’t Saturday when Jackson and his supporting cast lost to Wake Forest. John Wolford’s is much better, and that helped him spread the love and earn the Deacons the victory, with 28 completed passes (with just 6 misses) for 461 yards and five touchdowns, and another touchdown and 14 yards on four carries. That’ll earn you an EotMotW award, even if that pesky Khalil Tate is trying his best to win all of them.

Jim McElwain says Gators will “beat the heck out of Michigan”: McElwain made the comment at a pep rally with UF students on Sunday. The rally was streamed live on Periscope. (Edgar Thompson, Orlando Sentinel; Nick Cole, SEC Country)

Redshirt freshman QBs could have big impact in SEC: You know that Florida has a redshirt freshman quarterback vying for the starting job in Feleipe Franks, but two of the Gators’ SEC opponents this season - Tennessee and Texas A&M - have not yet named starters, but have redshirt freshmen frontrunners. (Steve Megargee, Gainesville Sun)

Q&A with Duke Dawson: The senior is one of the few familiar faces in Florida’s secondary. (Scott Carter, Florida Gators)

ESPN reveals Marvel comic book covers for first week of games: The Gators get one for their bout with Michigan. (Talal Elmasry, SEC Country)

Projecting the Gators’ offensive depth chart: The quarterback competition is still somewhat of a toss-up. (Ryan Young, SEC Country)

Gorjok Gak and Egor Koulechov open World University Games play: Gak is playing for Australia while graduate transfer Koulechov is playing for Israel. (Andrew Kovar, Florida Gators)

CeCe Jefferson and Jabari Zuniga named to Ted Hendricks Award preseason watch list: More Gators make another one of these seemingly endless watch lists. (Katie Callahan, Florida Gators)

Channing Tindall wants to visit Florida before commitment: The nation’s No. 1 outside linebacker wants to see a game in The Swamp before announcing his decision, which he plans to do at the end of September. (Zach Abolverdi, SEC Country)

The comments are yours.

The sought-after quality control coach isn’t confirming a return to the Gators just yet.

It was reported on Friday that Alabama football analyst Mike Locksley would return to the on-field coaching ranks with Florida in 2017. On Saturday, in the wake of Alabama’s Peach Bowl triumph over Washington, Locksley spoke for the first time since those reports — and clarified them, sort of.

It’s worth noting, as well, that AL.com reporter Matt Zenitz and Fox Sports reporter Bruce Feldman both tweeted on Friday — in remarkably similar tweets — that they were told that reports of Locksley agreeing to join the Gators were “premature.”

To be clear, I don’t think Feldman plagiarized Zenitz, or anything like that — but I do think it’s entirely possible that the same or very closely related sources told Zenitz and Feldman the same thing.

And I also think that reading between the lines, triangulating recent reporting with quieter reporting from Florida beat writers — who have discussed the possibility of Locksley rejoining the Gators for days — and thinking about things from Locksley’s perspective are all worth doing.

The practical value of Zenitz and Feldman reporting that Locksley has not yet agreed to a position with Florida is the “not yet” — which is, notably, far from a denial. What Locksley’s quote to McMurphy says is that he hasn’t been offered Florida’s offensive coordinator position — which is currently held by Doug Nussmeier, who is unlikely to leave Florida, and which no one reported Locksley was offered, anyway — and is sticking with Alabama through the College Football Playoff, which was widely assumed.

A few Alabama assistants have stayed with the Crimson Tide through the Playoff before planned departures over the last two years, as well. Then-defensive coordinator Kirby Smart remained with the Tide in 2015 before leaving for Georgia, as did defensive backs coach Mel Tucker, who is now Smart’s defensive coordinator in Athens. Lane Kiffin is coaching Alabama’s offense in this Playoff — for better or worse — before departing for Florida Atlantic.

Locksley, though, is blocked at every step with Alabama, which will likely have a full offensive staff even after Kiffin’s departure. Kiffin — who quite possibly pitched Locksley on joining him in Boca Raton, given reporting earlier in December that suggested he was interested in bringing Locksley along, which was promptly batted down as inaccurate — has plucked just two Alabama secondary staffers for his FAU staff, assistant strength coach Wilson Love and offensive analyst Charlie Weis, Jr., and would seem unlikely to remove incoming offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, running backs coach Burton Burns, wide receivers coach Billy Napier, or offensive line coaches Mario Cristobal and Brent Key from Nick Saban’s staff.

Burns and Cristobal have associate and assistant head coach titles, respectively, and any of the other coaches from what looks like Alabama’s 2017 offensive staff would assuredly be taking a pay cut to join Kiffin — Kiffin himself is doing so, after all.

Locksley, meanwhile, is making $45,000 as an Alabama analyst — peanuts in college coaching, though far more than most schools can offer off-field coaches — and would have the chance to make perhaps 10 times his salary if he comes to Florida, even if he does not take on the duties of offensive coordinator. No Florida coach is making under $285,000 in 2016, and Locksley’s experience might well command a salary near $500,000, in a band that would put him on par with Nussmeier, respected defensive line coach Chris Rumph, and veteran offensive line coach Mike Summers.

Florida’s staff might also be in for another round of small raises, with Geoff Collins leaving for Temple freeing up almost $900,000 for Florida’s salary pool even before any consideration of the staff leading the Gators to a second consecutive SEC Championship Game appearance.

Locksley likely does not have a signed contract with Florida at this moment; if he did, I can’t imagine he would be staying with Alabama for the next week, rather than joining Florida as soon as possible to help with the sprint to National Signing Day. He has quite possibly not been “offered” any job — offensive coordinator, running backs coach, recruiting coordinator, unspecified position — by the Gators, either, given how that word is used both expansively and narrowly in college football to convey both informal and formal overtures, and Jim McElwain’s cagey responses to questions about staff changes this offseason.

And it remains possible that Locksley won’t come to Florida after all, because nutty things happen all the time in this nutty industry.

Put that all together, and I think that it’s most likely that Locksley will, eventually, end up at Florida — or, perhaps, another school that can give him a significant raise, though Florida is clearly the favorite to hire him — even if it takes a little while for him to extricate himself from the Alabama machine.

And so long as that likelihood becomes a reality, it will be a significant win for Florida.

McElwain said this is Nick Saban’s best team at Alabama.

Florida’s Jim McElwain and several Gators were in front of microphones yesterday after the SEC Championship Game. Here’s what they had to say about the Gators’ loss to the top-ranked Tide.

Jim McElwain

Austin Appleby

Brandon Powell

CeCe Jefferson

Caleb Brantley

Jarrad Davis

Teez Tabor

The Gators have an apt defense and an offense that is struggling, to say the least. Can they mount any resistance to Alabama’s Force-choke hold on college football?

It’s a story as old as the SEC Championship Game itself. This Saturday’s championship contest will once again feature two of its most well-known combatants, two blue bloods of the Southeastern Conference who have long represented the power of their respective divisions. Alabama and Florida have met more times in the SECCG than any other two teams, and there’s good reason for it. Both teams have a history of success, and both squads know what it takes to overcome adversity and cipher the championship equation.

Last season, in the most recent chapter of the ongoing saga of the Crimson Tide and the Gators, it was Alabama that had the decided upper hand, trouncing a defensively stout Florida team that had a middling offense, at best. This year’s installment sets up in much the same frame: an all-powerful Alabama team with the nation’s top-ranked defense and a newly-explosive offense meets a Florida team that is limping over the finish line. Despite the storied history of the UF program, this match-up is as much a David and Goliath situation as any the Gators would find themselves in.

The storylines for this game are plentiful, to be sure. There’s the narratorial thread of history woven throughout the team’s previous meetings for all the SEC marbles. Often, when these two teams have played for the SEC crown, the winner has had an impact on the race for a national championship. There’s the continually-evolving tale of Alabama’s dynamic freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts, who seized hold of the job in his first college game and has held fast to it ever since. Hurts is a legend in the making, and in his first SECCG appearance, he’ll write yet another chapter in what will become a classic in Crimson Tide lore. There’s the strand of familiarity between the two head coaches, as not only did Coach Jim McElwain coach under Nick Saban, but he won national championships at Alabama with him. There’s the terrible toll of injury attrition for the Gators that has left a skeletal defensive crew with zero depth at some positions.

Pick a storyline…any storyline. There is plentiful intrigue leading into this year’s contest. One of the few areas of near certainty, however, is the outcome to hear the pundits tell it. Few can imagine any path to victory for a Gator team that has little offensive firepower, and that due to injuries, has a defense that is staggering into Championship Saturday. It’s a mismatch on paper, certainly. Alabama is a team that is ranked in the top-10 of both offensive and defensive S&P+, one of few teams nationally that can boast that distinction. The Tide has been number one for the majority of the 2016 season. Alabama can beat you with a stabbing, slashing offensive assault, or their defense can grip you in an ever-tightening embrace of slow, methodical, pressure-filled demise. From the outside looking in, it would appear that the Gators have little chance of pulling off what would be the most startling upset of the season.

But then again, that’s why the game is played. Alabama’s chances of victory may be high, but it’s that miniscule chance of an implosion (ever how small that chance may be) that will have millions of Bama haters nationwide cheering for the Gators.

Can the hopes of a Tide-weary nation help buoy the chances of a struggling Gator team in some exercise of instant manifestation? Probably not even universal loathing can sink the Tide’s hopes and save Florida from the fate that will befall the team on Saturday.

But one can be sure that with Coach Mac at the helm, the Gators will fight like their reptilian namesakes, locking down on Alabama and attempting to drag them into the swampy mire, into their favored habitat, where they can pitch and roll and wear Alabama down in an ugly but productive effort. That metaphor has bearing on the Gators’ only real path to victory against Alabama: use the defense to confound the Tide early, string the game along and keep the score close until the late second half, then hope for an offensive breakthrough that will be enough to win a close game. This is the same formula the Gators used several weeks ago against LSU, and it’s about the only chance that Florida will have of stealing one from Alabama this weekend.

Can Florida realistically do that, though? Do they have the depth defensively to render Alabama’s explosive offense impotent for four quarters? Schematically, is there any way they can maximize the remaining healthy talent on the roster to snarl Bama’s running game? Will a Gator offense that is ranked 104^th in scoring offense manage to do anything but attempt an occasional field goal against Alabama’s top-ranked defense?

The answers to those questions can be forecasted with reasonable accuracy in this hour, but there is always a margin for error. Let’s take a closer look…

The Alabama offense versus the Florida defense

In McElwain’s time in Gainesville, the former offensive coordiantor has had surprisingly good luck with the defensive half of his football team. Much of this is due to the inheritance of defensive talent left by Florida’s former head coach Will Muschamp, but it is also a product of his defensive coordiantor, Geoff Collins, one of the SEC’s brightest defensive minds who molded Mississippi State’s defense into a star-studded unit prior to his current stint at Florida.

Last season, both Alabama and Florida had top-10 defenses heading into the SECCG. While Alabama once again returns one of the nation’s best defensive units, Florida has seen their tide ebb somewhat in the late season, as injuries have taken their toll and stripped a once-loaded (but young) Gator defensive roster of much of its seasoned depth.

The main area of recession has been the Florida run defense, where the Gators have gone from being a top-10 unit last season to the 31^st ranked run defense in terms of raw data. That said, the Gators still retain an elite run defense when viewed through the lens of defensive S&P+, as the Gators are currently ranked ninth. Regardless of the measuring stick, even though the Gators may have lost a step against the run since last season, they remain a ferocious unit that can make the going tough on the ground.

Florida began 2016 loaded in the front seven, and combined with Collins’ nasty, chaotic scheme, they were a ferocious foe for the SEC’s rushing offenses. Even as late as the rescheduled LSU game, Florida was still able to largely keep the powerful LSU rushing attack (sans Fournette) at bay, limiting Derrius Guice to a mere 83 yards on the day. Last week, however, against Florida State, the Gator run defense looked tired, burned out, as they struggled to contain the Seminoles’ Dalvin Cook. Cook rumbled for 153 yards as the Gators fell once again to FSU by a score of 31-13.

As much as the run defense receded last week for the Gators, their pass defense has remained stable and stout. As has been the case since Will Muschamp’s tenure, Florida has excellent defensive back talent, and this year’s corps is led by future NFL’er Jalen Tabor (6-0, 201 pounds). The Gators have a swarming, multiple defensive back end that has shut down pretty much all challengers this season, forcing offenses to become one-dimensional. For example, one of the reasons Cook had the opportunity to rush for a buck-and-a-half against UF was the fact that Nole quarterback Deondre Francois was limited to a 138 yard passing performance with one touchdown to one interception. The Noles had no chance but to feed Cook, and the gambit worked.

The Gators have third-ranked passing defense in the country in terms of raw data, with a defensive pass S&P+ ranked seventh. The Gators give up an average of only 158 yards through the air, which is probably partly to blame for the recession of the Gators’ run defense numbers, i.e. teams rush much more than they usually do since the Gator pass defense is largely impenetrable.

Regardless of whether you look at raw data or advanced metrics, the Gators still have one of the nation’s top defensive units, even with all those injuries. They rank sixth in the NCAA in terms of total defense, with an overall defensive S&P+ that puts them ranked seventh nationally. All of this points to the fact that Alabama will likely not steam-roll the Gator defense this Saturday, as they are a well-coached, talented bunch who are playing within a scheme designed to create havoc and confusion for opposing quarterbacks. After all, if the data points from various sources agree at this late point in the season, there’s a pretty good chance they can be trusted. And all signs indicate that this Gator D will test the mettle of Alabama’s slow-starting offense on the SEC’s biggest stage.

So how will this match-up likely play out? After all, this is the pivotal battle in the game. There’s little doubt that the Gators’ putrid offense will not be able to find much daylight against an Alabama defense that is playing at historically-great levels right now. If Alabama can rumble though the UF defense, then all hope for the orange and blue will be lost. But, if Florida’s defense can confound Alabama’s young quarterback, if they can string out the running game and frustrate offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin, then there’s a chance Alabama could be locked in the kind of dog-fight it had in Baton Rouge a few weeks ago, or in the first half of the Iron Bowl in its most recent game.

Expect Florida’s Collins to have schemed up quite a plan for Alabama’s multiple, slash-and-burn offensive style. The Tide, as it has been well-documented, loves to run the ball. In the past, the preference was to run through a defense, using power formations and putting the ball in the hands of bruising backs to get the job done. That approach worked well against Florida last year in the SECCG. But this year, the Tide is a pachyderm of a different color. Alabama still loves to run through opposing defenses, but instead of the occasional power look when back Bo Scarbrough is in the game, Alabama prefers the inside zone. In addition, the Tide is also comfortable running around a defense on the edges, with elite speed at the quarterback position and a scheme designed to give Hurts simple reads that allow him to react without hesitation, catching defenses off balance.

Regardless of the specifics of the method of attack, Alabama remains a decidedly run-first team. How do they match up with Florida in that regard? The Alabama scheme is one that should test Florida mightily, taking advantage of roster weaknesses in much the same way that Florida State did. The Tide offense has more in common at this point with FSU than LSU, as the Tigers remain a team that will pound between the tackles with power and inside zone almost exclusively. Florida State has some spread concepts at work, and they create space for Cook to attack gaps. Alabama does the same thing, hitting those spaces with wave after wave of stylistically-different backs like Scarbrough, Josh Jacobs and Damien Harris. And then there’s Hurts himself, who adds in yet another wrinkle that is difficult to mitigate. There are a ton of moving parts, and when combined with Hurts’ nearly seamless RPO decision-making at this point, it’s an offense that is almost indefensible over four quarters. The Tide offense needs only a breakdown here, a big play there, and they gain a toe-hold that can become a springboard for violent aggression on the defense and more variety on offense.

Sure, teams may limit production. LSU did as good a job as anyone of attacking the weak joint in the Alabama offensive skeleton by going after the mesh point and penetrating from the outside in. Florida’s defense is of a similar caliber, but they struggle in the penetration department as demonstrated by marked drop-offs in sack and tackle for loss numbers from 2015. The Gators may take a tack similar to the one employed by LSU, but they will do so knowing that it’s a four-quarter endeavour. After all, LSU made three critical second-half mistakes defensively, and it was those mistakes that led to an Alabama victory. That was literally all the Tide needed with a defense that can effectively immobilize an opponent.

The Gators could also take a page from the Auburn playbook, as what the Tigers did early on in the Iron Bowl was frustrating to the Tide. They prevented so much of the lateral action upon which the Alabama offense is built by extending gaps wide and giving quick, athletic defenders the latitude to chase the ball and string out the edge running game. This forced Alabama to throw the ball early a little more than usual, and though the Auburn defense eventually broke, tactically, their first half strategy was a sound scheme.

Expect Florida to do a little of both. The best way to disrupt the timing of the zone read is with penetration and attacking of the mesh point. Alabama has shown some ball security issues late in the season, and if the Gators can penetrate enough to fiddle with Alabama’s run-game timing, turnovers could be a costly result for the Tide. The Gators are ball-hawks, as they have a +4 turnover ratio largely buoyed by an opportunistic secondary. If Florida can punch the Tide where it hurts, and force the young quarterback into putting the ball in the air early, it could set the stage for the Gators to hang around for longer than expected.

As has been the case for much of the season, one of the keys for Alabama success will be the Tide’s ability to find some combination of plays, whether runs or short passes, to create extended, time-consuming drives. Given the Gators’ non-existent depth, long Bama drives that keep the Gators on the field for long stretches (particularly in the first half) will exhaust them and leave them flagging in the second half. This was a visible dynamic for UF against FSU last weekend, as the Gator D held the Noles close until the second half, when they simply couldn’t hold back the flood any longer. Expect a similar storyline this weekend, as Alabama has a healthy offense, while the Gator defense is reeling.

The Gators are a decent third-down team (ranked 25^th), but Alabama is ranked 15^th in third-down conversions. If Kiffin can keep the offense rolling on third downs and patch together a few nifty drives that take what the Gators are giving in the first half, then there’s little hope the game will be remotely close in the fourth quarter. The Gator defense would have to be playing with superhuman strength and endurance to go toe-to-toe with a fluid, physical Alabama defense for four quarters, and after their performance last week against Florida State, there’s no reason to think that’s a possibility at this point in the season.

One of the surest ways for Alabama to stumble, however, will be if Kiffin elects to test the Gator secondary early. There will surely be some open routes of the short-range variety against Florida. As talented as their defensive backs are, Alabama’s receivers are equally as talented, and the Gator DBs won’t be able to sit on routes without risking big plays getting behind them. As much as Hurts has struggled in some aspects of his passing game, he has taken advantage of open receivers running free on busted (or inadequate) coverages. The Gator corners won’t surrender those big plays, but they may elect to keep the Tide receivers in front of them and concede the short routes, which will play into Alabama’s preferred game plan.

Against a defense like Florida, which plays a multitude of coverages but seems comfortable in quarters and other conventional schemes, there is always a potential for probing by an opposing quarterback in the intermediate and deep middle. In this regard, a guy like O.J. Howard could be an important part of the game plan. Calvin Ridley and ArDarius Stewart are both players who can exploit the soft spot in those types of coverages as well. It’s a dangerous proposition to allow a freshman quarterback who has struggled with progressions to throw over the deep middle, especially against a nasty Florida secondary. Will Kiffin turn Hurts loose to throw those dangerous passes to the underbelly of the Gator defense? Given the need to limit turnovers, there’s no reason to believe that the risk will be worth the potential gain early on, unless there are blown coverages that leave players wide open. It’s worth mentioning though that if Alabama can ever pry open that part of the field in the passing game, the rest of the Tide offense would benefit greatly, creating a nearly unstoppable force.

The game plan for Kiffin is simple: probe to find the weakness in the Gator defense, and then exploit it…repeatedly. As strong a unit as the Gators have been, there are many such weaknesses to target. They will be playing with a shallow linebacking corps. The starters in the secondary are elite, but behind them the Gators will count on freshmen. The defensive ends are workmanlike but unspectacular, and as a result, the Gators struggle to get penetration.

If Alabama can attack these soft spots early and break the will of the Gators to fight, this game will be another blowout. But if the offense stutters and stalls, if the Gators can generate turnovers and command field position defensively, then this game will remain winnable for a Florida team that has proven itself capable of last-minute miracles on multiple occasions this season.

Alabama defense versus the Florida offense

Much as has been the case in recent weeks, this analysis is quite simple. Alabama’s defense has been exemplary, having not allowed a touchdown in nearly a month and a half. Auburn managed a few field goals last week off the leg of Daniel Carlson, but other than that, the Tigers didn’t even sniff the end zone.

The Tide defense is running on a pace that will place it among the best college defenses ever. They do everything at a high level, as they are ranked in the top-10 of all but two metrics, pass defense (11^th) and red zone defense (57^th). Alabama has the nation’s best rush defense by a large margin. They generate tremendous quarterback-breaking pressure up front with minimum personnel. They come up with turnovers that they turn into scores (or scoring opportunities). No matter how you slice it, the Alabama defense in 2016 is the pinnacle of college defensive play, and you can believe the Gators will have no answer for that come Saturday.

There are no match-ups which will favor the Gator offense over the Tide defense. The Gators are in the bottom-third of most major offensive categories, including passing offense (86^th), rushing offense (104^th), scoring offense (104^th), and total offense (114^th). In a way, it’s amazing an offense as inept as the one the Gators field made it to the SECCG as the East representative. Such is a testament to the quality of the Florida defense, and the relative shambles that is the SEC East.

The Gators will have an even tougher time generating production this week, as left guard Martez Ivey (6-5, 305 pounds) is questionable for Saturday’s game. Even with Ivey on the field against FSU, the Gators were offensively inept, unable to move the ball with any regularity, as the only Florida touchdown came on a defensive scoop-and-score.

The lone offensive threat for Florida is sophomore wide receiver Antonio Callaway (5-11, 197 pounds), as he is a world-class athlete with speed and polished routes who deserves much better than the offense that he’s been surrounded with this season. It’s true, the Gators are working with a replacement quarterback yet again this season, as Austin Appleby (6-4, 240 pounds) stepped in after an injury to preferred starter Luke Del Rio earlier in the season. However, Appleby has performed as well as can be expected for a back-up with no time to develop chemistry with his receivers. Still, he’s only thrown for 964 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions.

As if the Gators needed further bad news, it appears that the only receiver that could present a size mismatch for the Tide secondary, namely Ahmad Fulwood (6-4, 208 pounds), is a possible scratch for this Saturday with an undisclosed injury. Outside of Callaway, the Gators have few weapons that can be turned against an excellent Tide pass defense, and that further decreases the chance for any offensive success for UF.

The Gators may try to run the ball, but that will be a losing proposition. When they fail, they may try to pass…which will also result in little gain. With a dinged-up Florida offensive line, Alabama’s pressure-cooking front four will have a field day. There will be sacks. There will be tackles for loss. Appleby has never seen the likes of what he’ll face Saturday, and in the kiln of defensive pressure, he will find it difficult to remain upright while making winning football plays.

Let’s speak bluntly: there is simply no way that the Gator offense will do to Alabama what countless better offenses have failed to do this season. There’s no need to mince words, as everyone who has seen the Alabama offense, and the Florida defense, knows exactly what will go down on Saturday. First downs will be few and far between for Florida. Sustained drives will be non-existent. It will be a soul-crushing experience for the SEC East champions, as attempting to execute against the Tide defense will seem the equivalent of banging one’s head through China’s Great Wall.

Despite the anti-Bama harping of pundits as of late, the Alabama defense is anything but overrated. They are as good a college defense as one will ever see, both schematically and in terms of personnel. Better offenses than Florida have tried and fallen well short, and there’s no reason to think a beat-up Gator offense with a second-string signal-caller is going to put Alabama’s ferocious defense in the wind.

Special Teams

As has been the case in the last several seasons, Alabama’s place-kicking woes have evaporated as the season has evolved. Shaky in the early season, Adam Griffith outduelled the more highly touted Carlson last weekend in the Iron Bowl. Fortunately for Alabama, the senior is hitting his stride at the right time, and will be an asset in the playoffs if he remains consistent.

J.K. Scott continues to amaze, and has been a critical component in Alabama’s control of field position this season. Scott currently leads the nation in punting (eh-hem, Ray Guy Award committee) with a 48-yard average. While Alabama may not need punting game heroics to take apart Florida, it’s good to know that against a defensive power like the Gators, Scott can help the Tide win an old-school field position football game if called upon to do so.

Trevon Diggs is growing into his role as the Tide’s primary return man. While he hasn’t been explosive, there are signs that he is working through the tentativeness often experienced by young returners. When he finally putts the pieces together, he has the athleticism to make opponents pay for underestimating his ability.

Kick coverage has become a weakness for Alabama as of late, as in several recent games, opposing return men have broken long runs that gave their respective teams great field position. This is something that must be corrected in the time between Saturday and the first round of the College Football Playoffs. The return game can make or break games against elite opponents, and the Tide won’t be able to afford to give away field position to the likes of Ohio State, Clemson, or Washington. It is one of few soft spots in an otherwise unassailable team effort, and it’s one that the Tide must shore up soon.

Florida is well-equipped on special teams, an area in which injuries haven’t had much of an effect. The Gators have quite a punter of their own in junior Johnny Townsend, who is third nationally amongst punters with an average of 47.6 yard per punt. Townsend is every bit as good as Scott, and he admittedly has more in-game practice this season.

The Gators also have the ability of former Tide commit Eddy Piniero at place kicker. Piniero is 18-of-22 thus far on the season, which is a solid performance for a young talent.

The always-electric Callaway is the leading punt returner for the Gators, and with the trouble Alabama has had of late with coverage on special teams, the prospect of a free-running Callaway may represent Florida’s best chance to putting points on the scoreboard. The sophomore averages 7.4 yards per return, and he only needs a sliver of daylight to slip through tacklers and downfield for a score. Returning kicks is Chris Thompson and Brandon Powell.

Real-talk: Alabama should win this game handily. There’s not a single critical metric in which the Gators appear to be the better team on paper. That doesn’t mean there won’t be tense moments, as the Gator defense and Alabama’s penchant for the locomotive-slow start will likely make for some uncomfortable moments for Tide fans early on.

However, barring an injury to a key offensive player, there’s no reason to believe that the SECCG won’t play out as countless late-season Alabama contests have, with the Tide landing body blows early while looking for a hay-maker opening. All it takes is that one landed punch, and by the time the flurry is over, so is the game from a competitive standpoint.

Florida has what it takes to confound Alabama in the first half from a defensive standpoint. After all, Hurts (as cool as he has been under the bright lights) has never played in a game of this magnitude, and the freshman could develop a slight case of the nerves. He also could display the cool-as-mountain-water vibe that he’s shown all year, and continue to be unflappable. Regardless, the impact will be minimal in regard to the outcome, as the Tide offense can afford mistake or two with a defense that is unflinching.

This game will likely take a tack similar to the one seen in 2015. Alabama should win going away. Even if Florida can slow the Alabama offense, they’ll only be postponing the inevitable.

Will Alabama put the throttle down and end the Gators’ hopes of victory early? Or will the wounded Florida team play above their heads and test the Tide’s resolve in the first half? Does Coach Mac have a trick up his sleeve, and if so, will it even matter against a Tide team that so dramatically outmans his Gator squad that a Bama win appears certain?

We’ll know soon, and those answers will come with a SEC Championship for one of the two aspiring contenders. Hope for the best…

The Gators jumped eight spots for their road win.

After downing LSU in Death Valley, Florida has at least a faint heartbeat in the College Football Playoff chase.

The Gators rose to No. 15 in Tuesday’s rankings, the second-to-last set before the final Playoff rankings are released in December.

Florida was been No. 11, unranked, and No. 23 in the three sets of rankings released thus far in 2016. The Gators’ 31-10 loss to Arkansas dropped them out of the rankings, but a victory over South Carolina and significant attrition in front of them allowed them to hop back in prior to their meeting with the Tigers.

If Florida is going to make a charge at the Playoff, it will do so by knocking off two teams ranked in front of it. This Saturday brings a chance to take at least the next rung on the rankings by merely bumping off the team that occupies it, No. 14 Florida State. Next Saturday, in Atlanta, the Gators will see No. 1 Alabama — a team that might not lose that top spot even if it falls to Auburn in the Iron Bowl.

Of course, Florida held the No. 12 spot in last year’s College Football Playoff rankings for the week of Thanksgiving — and subsequently lost its next three games by at least two touchdowns each.

Is winning Saturday’s game more important than preparing for more important Saturdays?

Florida fans of a certain age — ones who remember a time before Steve Spurrier being the Gators’ head coach, which I literally can’t — and ones who are aware of history beyond their own time may recall that Richard Nixon once told reporters, bitterly, “You don’t have Nixon to kick around anymore.”

On Saturday, Florida fans won’t have Luke Del Rio to kick around anymore. But as with Nixon — who told the press that in 1962, after a failed bid to become California’s governor, and a decade before he was elected president — there’s a chance that Del Rio could come back to put the lie to those words.

The primary task for Jim McElwain, Doug Nussmeier, and every other decision-maker on Florida’s coaching staff this week is to decide whether they should angle the Gators toward that possibility, or a far more uncertain future.

Two things have seemed unequivocally true about the Gators’ coaches beliefs about their quarterbacks in 2016:

1. McElwain, Nussmeier, and the rest have started and stuck with Del Rio because they believe him to be the quarterback who gives Florida the best chance to win football games right now.
2. Those same coaches are committed to finding the best chances at winning football games right now, rather than sacrificing some chance of winning now and pouring some foundation for a possibly brighter future.

I’m not sure how else to interpret sticking with Del Rio not only after Austin Appleby’s underwhelming cameo, but through three games in which he was limited by injuries and threw six interceptions and two touchdowns, and not playing freshmen Feleipe Franks or Kyle Trask at any point.

Florida’s coaches have either shown that they don’t believe that Appleby, Franks, or Trask is better today than even an injured an limited Del Rio, or that their actions run counter to their beliefs. And given how stupid the latter possibility would reveal Florida’s coaches to be — imagine Florida starting Luke Del Rio, whose best game this season was a torching of Kentucky, despite thinking other players were better — I have to think that the former is the truth.

And, really: Starting the best quarterback available makes obvious sense. Florida’s coaches should probably want to win the games immediately before them — the only ones they can prepare for with any degree of certainty about personnel availability and so forth — every week, and Florida should probably be able to game-plan for wins rather than being competitive every week.

Certainly, Florida’s defense has been good enough for the two years of McElwain’s tenure to be able to devise winning game plans that require only a modicum of offense; certainly, it is the expectation of Florida fans that the mighty Gators should be contenders to win every game they play, whether that has any basis in fact or not.

But starting the best quarterback today may not always be the best decision for the long-term prospects of a football program. And Florida must consider that this week.

The Gators still have goals to pursue in 2016. They could win the SEC by winning out, as unlikely as that seems, and there is still enough uncertainty at the top of the rankings to consider the even more distant possibility that a two-loss Florida team coming off consective wins away from home over LSU, Florida State, and Alabama.

Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, and Washington haven’t won their conference titles yet, it’s fair to note — and it’s still possible that the Crimson Tide, Tigers, and Wolverines won’t even play for them. This is college football. The bizarre can be banal.

And given that the much more achievable goal of winning the SEC East — something that requires either Florida sweeping both South Carolina and LSU or the Gators winning one of those two games and Kentucky defeating Tennessee — is also on the table, I think it would have been perfectly logical for Florida to start a healthy Del Rio against the Gamecocks. Poor as his play has been, Florida’s coaches clearly believe he has a better chance of producing a winning level of play than any other option.

Florida doesn’t have a healthy Del Rio, though, and has ruled out the injured version that it still allowed to ride out a terrible performance at Arkansas over Appleby, Franks, and Trask. And the choice before them now — Appleby or Franks/Trask — presents what seems like the clearest possible opposition of motivations for the Gators.

Appleby starting and playing throughout is, I think, the most likely scenario for this weekend. It’s logical — Appleby was Florida’s backup earlier this year, and has far more experience both in his college career and with this team — and easily defensible as a foundation-laying move, because there is value in both keeping a redshirt year intact for Franks and/or Trask and allowing them to play their first snaps in live action in lower-leverage situations than must-win games.

If Florida assesses intact years of eligibilty for both Franks and Trask as more valuable than the experience of playing this weekend or this year, Appleby makes sense as the stopgap, just like Del Rio did and does. If Florida assesses keeping Franks and Trask in competition — as twins in eligibility and experience, rather than as players demarcated as 1A and 1B options for 2017, and set on paths to starter and transferring backup in 2018, by a tipped hand in 2016 — as more valuable than that experience, it ought to start Appleby.

But Florida can’t assess these things in a vacuum. And context suggests this is going to be seen as a binary choice: Winning now or preparing for later.

Appleby’s out of eligibility after this fall, and whatever long-term benefits there are to playing him now are found in his role as a shield for Franks and Trask. If Appleby plays brilliantly, or if he gets hurt or gets shaken — Tebow forbid — by virtue of playing on Saturday, that benefit or detriment to Florida expires about two months from now. (Appleby obviously stands to individually profit from or be diminished by his play, of course — but Florida’s coaches can’t consider just the individual benefits of giving a player a start.)

Florida fans are starved for good quarterback play, after spending the entire decade of the 2010s wanting for a successful successor to Tim Tebow. They — we — have clung to flashes of brilliance, hung on promises of competence, and, increasingly, hoped for something other than woe. Things have gotten so dire that the days of believing in Charlie Weis as the coordinator who would unlock John Brantley’s potential, believing in Jeff Driskel’s growth — before the 2013 or 2014 seasons, you pick — as the key to him delivering on his hype, believing in Treon Harris as a panacea for what ailed a Driskel-led offense, and, finally and most breathtakingly, believing in Joshua Grady as a panacea for what ailed a Harris-led offense, have all become the halcyon moments of yesteryear.

Now, Gators fans pine for the return of Will Grier — who, taking him at his word, made the mistake of not consulting Florida coaches about taking the steroid-like Ligandrol, maintains a real or faux naïvete about why a coach might not want a player who did that to his teammates around, and spins a self-pitying yarn (“I never thought McElwain appreciated anything I did”) to explain why his accomplishments should outweigh his errors.

And that’s if you take Grier’s word — told to a columnist who once decried Antonio Morrison being frivolously arrested for barking at a police dog as part of an “enabling” culture at Florida, yet now seems really, truly, fully devoted to boosting Grier and crucifying McElwain for not keeping a confirmed drug cheat — as the fullest truth. Too many trusted sources have told me too many things for me to do that.

Yet Grier was, undeniably, a flash of brilliance who promised no less than competence, and whose woe was only a result of his self-inflicted off-the-field errors. Even arguing correctly that his positive contributions were limited those five quarters from the end of a miraculous win over Tennessee and a demolition of Mississippi still doesn’t sway Florida fans who want a good quarterback above all else.

And that’s what and who this choice, of Del Rio or Appleby vs. Franks or Trask, is really about, as much as it is Florida’s future as a program.

Trotting Del Rio out on Saturday would have been inviting boos to cascade on Senior Day — from a crowd that will assuredly underwhelm, given the growing fear that Florida might, gulp, lose to a team coached by Will Muschamp, and Del Rio’s injury staving that off is a blessing in disguise. Starting Appleby would at least be something new for the home crowd — he played only sparingly before them against North Texas — even if it seems likely to produce more of the same quality of play.

But starting Franks or Trask could very well energize the Florida fan base.

Many, many Gators fans seem to me to be far more willing to pin their hopes on a future that might be better than a dismal present than to attempt to grind out wins on the margins in hopes of earning the opportunity to be smithereened by Alabama in Atlanta on another Saturday in December.

Many, many Gators fans — generally well-informed, as a whole, despite the presence of pernicious elements predisposed to pessimism, and a lunatic fringe to rival that of any big-league program’s flock — understand that the granitic defense that has been taken for granted for so many years might not actually be there to fall back on in 2017, as a slew of starters depart for the NFL, leaving lesser-regarded, largely untested backups behind.

Many, many Gators fans would be much more excited about 2017 — and its ridiculous home schedule — after a flash of brilliance from Franks or Trask down the stretch in 2016. And many of the recruits who grew up as Florida fans — a dwindling number, given how hard it has often been to root for the Gators since 2010 — might well be excited by that, too.

The window for responsibly starting Franks or Trask probably opens and shuts this week. Starting unprepared quarterbacks at LSU, something Florida did in 2011 and 2015, has not worked out; thrusting a true freshman into the malestrom that will be Death Valley for this hotly awaited Florida-LSU would be nearly malpractice. The same goes for debuting Franks or Trask at Doak Campbell Stadium, or in an SEC Championship Game. If any part of keeping Franks and Trask away from the field until now has been about keeping them free of the keloids that defenders can slash into both mind and body, it makes little sense to suddenly risk them now.

But while the window for starting them probably reopens for a bowl game, Florida could — and maybe should — get a lot more out of burning a redshirt by doing so before a game that, uh, actually matters. There will be pressure on Florida’s starter on Saturday, sure — but he’ll play in a far more forgiving environment than any other one the Gators will inhabit in the near future. And with a showdown with Michigan in Cowboys Stadium looming as another high-pressure situation to begin 2017, it’s probable that Franks and Trask are either going into the fire now or later.

The fans that have supported Florida since 2010 likely lived through the most wonderful nows that the Gators have ever authored. Urban Meyer brought Florida to dizzying heights, ones that set fans’ base camp even higher than Spurrier’s first expeditions of summit-seekers did in the 1990s.

Now, though, we look at those years as then. And we wonder if we will ever see them again. And we want a flash of brilliance, a spark of hope.

Why not try breathing that into existence right now?

Told you.

The Florida Gators sit at No. 11 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings of 2016, released during an ESPN show on Tuesday.

The Gators check in behind two Big Ten teams — No. 10 Nebraska and No. 12 Penn State — and outside of a top 10 that features three other top-10 Big Ten squads, including No. 8 Wisconsin, the highest-ranked two-loss team in the rankings.

The big surprise of the rankings is No. 4 Texas A&M, which sits one spot ahead of unbeaten No. 5 Washington. But the Aggies have a road win over No. 9 Auburn, and wins over Tennessee and UCLA, while Washington’s best win — by the selection committee’s rankings, anyway — is a road win over No. 16 Utah.

This points directly to the selection committee’s propensity for favoring résumé — and specifically quality of victories — over any other factors when ranking teams, something I pointed out on Sunday, while warning that Florida could be a top-10 team in the polls — as it is — and outside the Playoff’s top 10.

But Florida could conceivably be in the top 10 on Sunday and out of it on Tuesday, when the College Football Playoff’s selection committee issues its first rankings.

That committee has demonstrated, time and again, that it does not consistently use the polls as a framework, and so Florida can’t benefit from the same propensity for inertia it does with the coaches and AP voters. Instead, the committee is likely to weigh résumés and use “the eye test” to craft its hierarchy.

...

I think Wisconsin’s very likely to be ahead of Florida in the Playoff rankings, and I would be utterly unsurprised to see two of Baylor, Nebraska, and West Virginia in front of the Gators, too. Hell, Western Michigan’s best win — at Northwestern, just like Nebraska’s — is over a team S&P+ liked better than Kentucky as of last week, and the Broncos didn’t blow a 21-0 lead in their nonexistent loss. Auburn’s only losses are to Clemson and Texas A&M, and Auburn has wins over LSU, Arkansas, and Mississippi — whose five losses are to Florida State, Alabama, Arkansas, LSU, and Auburn, all top-25 teams in my view — to its name.

Put simply: Florida’s lack of a marquee win is going to be its bête noire in these initial College Football Playoff rankings, and may keep a team that should be no lower than No. 8 or No. 9 in this week’s polls outside the top 10 in the selection committee’s eyes.

In other words: Called it.

Florida’s No. 11 ranking gives the Gators two consecutive years with at least one top-10 College Football Playoff ranking. Florida rose as high as No. 8 in the third week of 2015’s rankings.

Both players left the game and did not return.

The Gators begin this season where they ended the last.

This doesn't change much, but it's something.

The '06 champs will be back in The Swamp.

Chomping at Bits comes stocked with the best Florida Gators links and news we can find, and some other stuff. Got a link you think we should check out? Email us at AlligatorArmy@gmail.com, subject line CAB, or find us on Twitter at @AlligatorArmy or on Facebook at Facebook.com/AlligatorArmy.

2006 national championship football team to be honored during homecoming: The 2006 Florida football team will be honored the weekend of this year's homecoming game against Missouri on October 15th. (Chris Harry, Florida Gators)

Incoming Florida men's basketball players adjust to summer program: Freshman Eric Hester, Dontay Bassett, and transfers Canyon Barry and Jalen Hudson have been participating in UF's summer conditioning, about which Barry says "every Friday I wake up and think I'm going to die." (Chris Harry, Florida Gators)

Q&A with Jordan Cronkrite, previewing Florida's running backs: The sophomore advertising major used to be an artist. (Scott Carter, Florida Gators)

Tim Tebow potentially interested in coaching or politics: The former Gator has a new book coming out in about a month. He also says that while Urban Meyer is like a father figure to him, he is a Gator first and foremost and that Meyer might have to be "Gator bait" if Florida and Ohio State were to play. (Ralph Russo, Gainesville Sun)

Y'all ready for a fall camp hype video?

It's more than just football. It's family. #GoGators https://t.co/shMfPDAw6V

— Jim McElwain (@CoachMcElwain) July 27, 2016

The Gators had also their portraits taken prior to camp.

#Gators had a little fun the last couple days.

Just one more week til camp starts. #Swamp16 pic.twitter.com/0Smd0xxTtj

— Gators Football (@GatorsFB) July 27, 2016

"Did we just become best friends?" #Brothers pic.twitter.com/rUgLOq7OKm

— Gators Football (@GatorsFB) July 28, 2016

The comments are yours.

The Gators' linebacker possesses an incredible blend of power and speed.

For the last several years, venerated college football writer Bruce Feldman has produced a "freaks" list detailing the most outstanding athletes in the sport. This year's edition includes Florida linebacker Jarrad Davis, who checks in at a tie for No. 20 with Arizona 'backer Freddie Tagaloa of Arizona.

Here's why Davis is on the list, per Feldman:

Gators LB coach Randy Shannon said Davis has the competitiveness of Jon Vilma, the athleticism of Jon Beason and the football knowledge of Ray Lewis. DC Geoff Collins told me that Davis' "desire, drive and willpower are at the highest levels there is. Every rep he takes at practice or in a walkthrough is at a game-level focus. He's as intense of an individual as I've ever been around and one of the highest character kids as well." The 6-2, 240-pounder has timed in the 40 in the mid-4.5s and done 318 pounds in the clean and jerk. On the field last year, he had 98 tackles and 11 TFLs.

That is an insane combination of power and speed for Davis, who could certainly do worse for comparisons than that trio of Miami Hurricanes coached by Shannon, all of whom made at least three Pro Bowls.

Fans might be more familiar with some of the names at the top of the list — LSU wrecking ball Leonard Fournette, Oregon wideout-slash-Olympic hurdler Devon Allen, and hulking Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett are the list's top three in ascending order — but Davis, projected to be a possible first-rounder in the 2017 NFL Draft and expected to be one of the leaders of another fierce Florida defense, may make himself a household name this fall.