As the calendar turns to August, college football fan bases often begin to form a trichotomy of sorts (yes, I just made that word up). Generally speaking, there are the optimists, the pessimists (usually a weak contingent for a lot of fan bases but particularly strong in Gopher-dom), and the realists.

The optimists and pessimists often eschew statistics and sound analysis in favor of unsupported claims about the upcoming season. They throw out grandiose predictions, either overly positive or overly negative, without so much as a single number to back up why they think their team will win x number of games out of 12 (or 13 or 14 or 15...). And since we have nothing better to talk about during the build up to the 2016 season, this practice is perfectly understandable. There's nothing wrong with boldly proclaiming a Rose Bowl or pronouncing gloom and doom at this juncture, when we know so little about what is actually going to take place on the gridiron.

But let me take you back to that third group of people, the realists, and look at what they tend to do when making announcements about the season. They usually have some statistical information, whether it's returning number of starters or some other factoid that gives them an informed opinion. They may look at the schedule and make hypotheses based on the opponents' number of returning starters. They may identify the perceived strengths and weaknesses of multiple rosters and compare how those will mesh against each other. Whatever they do, they attempt to quantify their reasoning for their thinking.

I am here to tell you today that for the 2016 Minnesota Golden Gopher football season, the optimists and the realists can be one in the same. And the reason I say this is because there is statistical evidence that points to success in a variety of aspects in relation to the 2016 season. Head Coach Tracy Claeys has been known as a mathematician due to his educational background and his approach to football in his limited time at the head of the program. So it would make sense that he falls into the realist group that paints a pretty good-looking picture of the Gophers' 2016 season.

While I can only claim to be an amateur statistician, below I will provide you a few reasons why the realist statisticians and the wide-eyed optimists could be slowly converging into the same fan group as the 2016 season quickly approaches.

1. General Upward Trajectory of the Program

By looking at the trend of the Minnesota's advanced statistical profile over the last five years, we can see that it has trended upward. Here is a graph to illustrate this because pictures are kind to the eyes and graphs are fun.

 

Yes, technically in this graph, it has actually trended "downwards" but that is because the Golden Gophers' rankings have improved among FBS programs (where a lower ranking means you are doing better, obviously). While the continuation of this trend could be considering unlikely due to a coaching change, keep in the mind that two highly influential contributors to the past five years of incrementally increasing success are still on the coaching staff in key roles: now head coach Tracey Claeys and now defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel. The success on the field in the form of more wins than previous five year periods have contributed to more success recruiting. This has meant more talent up and down the roster. This general upward trend is evident in the consistent improvement in the advanced statistical profile of the team. With continuity on defense, a strength the last 3 years or so, it is well within the realm of possibility that this trend could be predictive of 2016 results.

2. Parsing through Bill C's Projections

Bill C. of Football Study Hall does a statistical preview of every FBS team before the games start. Here is Minnesota's. We've linked to this previously (way back in June) but it is important to highlight again because there is not a single game where the Gophers have less than a 32% win expectancy. I don't know every specific that goes into these numbers but they take into account previous years of data, strength of active recruited classes, and a myriad of other things. The fact that before a single snap has been taken and Minnesota has at least a 30% chance at grabbing a win in every single game they play should be reason enough to be seeing a rosier picture compared to last year's results. Another important number in Bill C's projection is the 7.5 projected wins for the Gophers. While this doesn't necessarily serve as a "baseline," it's nice to see that the statistical models that take into account things like current talent level and schedule peg us to be well above another 5 win regular season.

3. Dissecting the Schedule

Last year, according to S&P+, Minnesota played the 5th hardest schedule in all of FBS. If we were to average the projected S&P+ rank of each of Minnesota's 2016 opponents to give us a general idea of how good the competition will be in 2016, that number is close to an average rank of 61st. (NOTE: This discounts the FCS squad from Indiana State that the Gophers will face on September 10th.) While it may be an over-simplification, this means that on a week-in, week-out basis, Minnesota will be facing the equivalent of an average FBS program or in other words, Illinois, who ranked 61st in S&P+ in 2015. If we remove non-conference opponents from the conversation, the average rank only drops to 54th (Louisiana Tech was the 2015 equivalent). After last years gauntlet, I'm sure no one will be apologizing for the relatively easy schedule, but it is just another statistical fact that points towards an increased win total in 2016. One last note on the schedule that could provide the Gophers with a respite: though they have more away games than home games in conference play this year, the Gophers do not have consecutive away games throughout the entire schedule. This is a interesting nugget that lends itself to another Minnesota advantage.

4. Pointing Out the Obvious About Injuries

In 2015, it felt like every other series there was another Gopher hobbling off the field. Every Monday seemed like fans were waiting on pins and needles to hear an inevitable announcement about another player missing the rest of the season with some sort of injury. While football is a violent game where injuries are absolutely unavoidable and should be expected throughout the course of practice and a 12 game regular season slate, the absurd quantity of injuries to key players up and down the two-deep for Minnesota (one stat I saw cited 22 players on the 2-deep missing multiple games, but I never found a 100% accurate number)  is simply not repeatable from a statistical perspective. The probability of players from the two-deep missing as much time as they did in 2015 is not statistically significant meaning it is highly unlikely to happen again. Since we start the preseason with assumptions anyways, having seen no meaningful snaps, let us assume average health/injury luck for the 2016 season. This would indicate that Minnesota will be able to build upon a healthier roster, contributing to a higher quality of play.

5. Experience at Skills Positions

Disregard everything that has been said about Mitch Leidner leading up to the 2016 season. Forget anything you've heard, positive or negative, and just consider this: he has 722 career collegiate passing attempts and has played in 35 collegiate games. He has an enormous amount of experience compared to his peers. At quarterback, experience matters, especially when you don't have access to the five-star recruits that powerhouses like Alabama, Ohio State, and others do. Even though changes in offensive scheme are taking place, there is something to be said about having a heavily experienced quarterback at the helm that gives a college program an advantage.

Furthermore, the offense returns 88% of its carries from 2015. The combination of Shannon Brooks and Rodney Smith at running back and Mitch Leidner at quarterback give the Gophers a plethora of experience carrying the ball, not to mention the huge stockpile of young options to soak up any further opportunities provided by load or injury. The running game will be well taken care of with quality experience returning to the fold.

Lastly, though the receiving core loses WR KJ Maye, who accounted for 30.4% of targets last year, the Gophers return all other major contributors including WR Drew Wolitarsky (15.6% of all targets) TE Brandon Lingen (11.9%), and promising sophomore WR Rashad Still (8.8%) who came on strong at the end of last season as a true freshman to become the team's third most targeted option. Though Maye was a valuable player, his catch rate was only 58.4%.  Compare that to Wolitarsky's 62.9% and though the Gophers are losing their biggest target and play maker in Maye, they may be able to improve as a receiving unit overall with the return of the rest of the unit.

Conclusions

Obviously, this brief breakdown only focused on the positive statistics. The Gophers aren't returning some absurd number of starters and they don't have a highly touted recruiting class coming into their junior year. They do have some weaknesses in their roster construction (like the defensive front four). But there does appear to be a decent amount of evidence at a macro level that suggestions Claeys and Co. have a strong chance at obtaining at least 8 wins. While some might then argue that 8 wins is a baseline for the season, I'd look at the glass half full while  citing the statistic that the Gophers have only won 8 games 5 times in the last 40 years as a reason to be happy with 8 wins for the 2016 season. It is for this reason that I think the statistics do, in fact, paint a pretty picture for the Gophers for this upcoming season. But should the fates of the awkward-shaped ball smile upon Minnesota this year, 8 might be just the beginning.

Photo: Here's another look at #Gophers quarterback Mitch Leidner's left foot after ligament surgery in December. pic.twitter.com/syKIQDaFFA

— Andy Greder (@andygreder) July 26, 2016

(*Editor's note...What the heck does "Commitment to Eight" mean? It is our new recurring title for recruit commitments referencing a commitment to work towards the Gopher's Eighth National Championship. A little bit tongue in cheek, but why not right?)

Unexpectedly on a Thursday afternoon the Gophers picked up their 8th commitment of the 2017 class and third offensive lineman.  With local linemen Blaise Andries and Eric Abojei on board and likely guys who will play tackle, it was important for the staff to secure a couple interior linemen in this class as well.  Gaynor is the first and will come to the program as a guard.

The Florida native had offers from Pitt, West Virginia (arguably the favorite to land him), UCF and quite a few smaller schools.  I think there is risk that later in the year one of the big Florida schools (primarily Miami) will give him a late offer as they miss on some other guys and then we will see just how committed Gaynor is.  But for now he is committed and excited to be a Gopher.

#GOGOPHERS 〽️〽️ pic.twitter.com/qWExO2pDMY

— Corey gaynor (@Corey_Gaynor) July 21, 2016

Quotables

Ryan Burns of GopherIllustrated ($cout) pulled this from Gaynor last month when he announced that he had the Gophers in his final 2 schools.

"I'm hearing the most from Minnesota, Pitt, Miami (Fla.) and West Virginia," Florida OL Corey Gaynor said to GopherDigest. "Pitt told me that I'm a physical hard nosed football player and they need me to join their team. Minnesota said they love my style of play and think I would be a great big 10 lineman and huge addition to the team. Miami told me to be really patient with them. I had a great day at their camp and am nearing an offer and West Virginia told me they love my brand of football and want me to be the next commit in the class. So it's been pretty busy."

(Likely Fraudulent) Measurables**

** The section title is intentionally facetious regarding how recruiting sites (and even some college coaches) notoriously exaggerate traditional combine measures -- especially the 40. No offense is meant.

Height: 6' 4"
Weight: 280 lbs.
Fake 40 Time: seems fast-ish

Big 4 Ratings:

Site	Stars	Rating	Position Rank
247 Composite	2	.7858	92
247	2	78	87
Rivals	2	5.4	-
Scout	2	-	-
ESPN	-	-	-

At this point of the year we can lament how stars don't matter but then come February we (or others) lament about how the Gopher class ranks so poorly compared to its Big Ten piers. So do stars matter? Not really, but kind of.

Highlights

Junior year highlights:

TDG Analysis

In Two Words - if you have to remember just two things about this player...

• Physical
• Tough

Absurd Comparisons

Due to his physicality and toughness, I would put Gaynor in the same class as Zach Epping.  Hard to make a real strong comparison when he doesn't have the red hair, but I think the way he finishes plays and plays with some nastiness, we have another Epping type interior lineman on our hands.

Scheme Fit

This is the type of interior lineman I think we can start to expect a little more.  Gaynor has some mobility but he's also big and physical.  Watch how he seems to relish finishing plays with the defensive player laying on the ground. Of course this is a highlight tape so they aren't going to show his bad plays, but he definitely plays with a physicalness and an attitude.  He'll fit in nicely.  I do believe that if we can hold off the big Florida schools who may offer late, we will have a multi-year starter on the line here.

Impact on Other Prospects?

I would say that the Gophers will bring 1 more interior lineman and possibly adding one more lineman that could be any position.  Brett Kitrell is a Nebraska kid who will be a Husker if he gets that offer.  If not the Gophers would probably be the favorite and he would come to the program as a center.  Kendrick Green is listed as a center but it is unclear if he would be a center or a DT here.  Either way, adding Gaynor does not preclude the Gophers from taking of their primary targets.

Gopher Recruiting Map

(*Editor's note...What the heck does "Commitment to Eight" mean? It is our new recurring title for recruit commitments referencing a commitment to work towards the Gopher's Eighth National Championship. A little bit tongue in cheek, but why not right? )

Last night the Gophers received their 6th verbal commitment for the 2017 Class and the 5th from an in-state prospect.  Nathan Bursch is a tight end from Woodbury who earned himself a scholarship offer after a couple good camp performances and once offered he was very excited to pull the trigger.

SKI U 〽️AH pic.twitter.com/cnWNqbNUqT

— Nathan Bursch (@termaNATEr15) June 20, 2016

Quotables

Ryan Burns of GopherDigest ($) talked with one of Bursh's high school coaches who had a lot of very good things to say about the new Gopher commit.  The kid is a hard worker and has some tenacity.

"Nate has incredible feet, long arms, and a really strong base. He has an innate ability to shoot his hands into the defenders chest plate and lock on. When he was a sophomore, we had to hold him back during practice. He was putting our senior linebackers on their back over and over again during practice. As a collective unit, they didn't really like him at first because he practiced so hard. After a while, they started to respect his effort and it really changed the culture of our team."

Much more in that article above that is a really good read.

GopherIllustrated article upon getting his offer last week.

"It means a lot," he told Gopher Illustrated. "I grew up a Gopher fan. I've watched them my whole life with my dad and almost every year we've made it to at least one game. Even in the Metrodome I remember going with family. The Big Ten in my opinion is the best conference in college football, and definitely the best conference to play in if you’re from the Midwest. They're very exciting to watch and it's crazy to think about the opportunity that I could do that and represent the state."

But the kid is excited to be a Gopher. That's a good thing because you want kids who want to be here.

I realized how much I love home and the people here, and how I want to play for them. There are so many connections here, even just in Woodbury. There’s no place I’d rather be than Minnesota.

(Likely Fraudulent) Measurables**

** The section title is intentionally facetious regarding how recruiting sites (and even some college coaches) notoriously exaggerate traditional combine measures -- especially the 40. No offense is meant.

Height: 6' 5"
Weight: 235 lbs.
Fake 40 Time: unknown

Big 4 Ratings:

Site	Stars	Rating	Position Rank
247 Composite	3	.8111	73
247	n/a	-	-
Rivals	2	5.4	-
Scout	3	x	60
ESPN	n/a	-	-

Highlights

Junior year highlights:

TDG Analysis

In Two Words - if you have to remember just two things about this player...

• Physical
• Tough

Absurd Comparisons

Bursh played every down for Woodbury at DE and on offense played mostly TE but moved to LT when the team needed help at the position.  I see him as more of a John Rabe than a Maxx Williams, but he is capable of being more effective in the passing game than Rabe who had 14 catches and 4 TDs as a senior.  But in terms of strength and toughness and effectiveness in the running game, I think this is an apt comparison.

The trick with the comparisons is to try to remain at least a little bit realistic.  Not every TE the Gophers sign is comparable to Williams and not becoming an early-round draft pick because athleticism and pass-catching ability as a TE isn't a bad thing.  Bursch, I believe, is going to be a very good Gopher TE who helps in all phases.

Scheme Fit

The kid is very physical plays with some tenacity.  You are going to get a kid who is athletic enough (not going to blow you away with athleticism) to get out in pass patterns and tough enough to be a very good blocking TE.  This fits the scheme here where springing backs for nice gains is more of the priority over picking apart defenses through the air.  Busch will be able to get his catches over the middle, but he will be a complete TE.

Impact on Other Prospects?

There will be another TE taken in this class.  If you look at the scholarship grid, there are 3 junior TEs on the roster so adding a couple in this class is going to be important.  Adding three might be a bit much, but 2 is almost a guarantee.

2017 Recruiting Map

(*Editor's note...What the heck does "Commitment to Eight" mean? It is our new recurring title for recruit commitments referencing a commitment to work towards the Gopher's Eighth National Championship. A little bit tongue in cheek, but why not right? )

Summer camps are the time when players heading into their senior year really begin to emerge and earn themselves D1 scholarship offers.  One such player who turned good camp performances into a scholarship is Dominik London.

After a couple of strong camp performances (one in Chicago and one on campus), Dominik London has earned himself a Golden Gopher scholarship offer and after visiting this week he has accepted. This very well may be the only scholarship running back taken in this 2017 recruit class, so let us get to know Mr. London.

pic.twitter.com/57oVmtaDH3

— Dominik London (@dominik_london) June 15, 2016

Quotables

Ryan Burns of GopherDigest ($) talked about London at the first Gopher camp of the summer.

London tested extremely well like he did at the Nike Camp in Chicago, and just toasted every linebacker during one on ones. London is very elusive in space and knows how to use his quickness to his advantage, just toying with the defender in the open field.

A recent Rivals interview, London had this to say about the Gopher staff and their interest.

"They love my vision. they love the power that I have. My East Ridge team, we run an offense really similar to theirs, and they think I run it really well. I’ve mastered the zone read and they think I can do it even better for them."

(Likely Fraudulent) Measurables**

** The section title is a bit. It's an intentionally facetious comment on how recruiting sites (and even some college coaches) notoriously exaggerate traditional combine measures -- especially the 40. No offense is meant.

Height: 5' 9"
Weight: 195 lbs.
Fake 40 Time: 4.66

Big 4 Ratings:

Site	Stars	Rating	Position Rank
247 Composite	3	.8266	88
247	3	85	85
Rivals	3	5.7	-
Scout	3	-	70
ESPN	-	-	-

At this point of the year we can lament how stars don't matter but then come February we (or others) lament about how the Gopher class ranks so poorly compared to its Big Ten piers. So do stars matter? Not really, but kind of.

Highlights

Junior year highlights:

TDG Analysis

In Two Words - if you have to remember just two things about this player...

• Elusive
• Hands

Absurd Comparisons

Going back a few years to compare London to Duane Bennett.  Both in terms of stature, speed is similar and both were adept at catching the ball out of the backfield and accumulating all-purpose yardage.  London appears to be a kid with solid speed, but not exactly blazing.  He is better at making people miss than he would be at running away from them or bowling them over.

Bennett finished his Gopher career with nearly 3,000 all-purpose yardage (2,126 on the ground and 806 via the pass). His 2,126 ranks 13th all-time on the Gopher career list and if London has a career similar to this we should all say this scholarship was a pretty big success.

Scheme Fit

If you watch closely there are even a few clips in London's highlight video of him blocking in pass protection.  He was praised for his hands at the Chicago Opening and I suspect you will see London as a potential 3rd down back who may work himself into an everydown kinda player.  A good combo-back who with elusiveness and solid speed.

Impact on Other Prospects?

It is entirely possible that this is the only Gopher running back taken in this class. It is also possible that London is one of two and he gets a look elsewhere (DB or slot receiver).  There are currently 5 scholarship running backs on the roster with none being seniors so adding 2 to this class would seem excessive.  Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks are sophomores so adding multiple backs to this class does not seem likely.  But it is early and if the right kid came along that is a "must take," you know they would.