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12:32 pm
March 9, 2016
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Vegas doesn’t forecast significant improvement, but this projection seems low.
The college football season is still three months away, but it’s going to get here fairly quickly. Bettors are already preparing, and one sports book thinks it’s got a good sense of where the chips will fall for Maryland this year.
Las Vegas’ South Point Sports Book, in odds first released last week, puts Maryland’s over/under win total at 4.5, after the Terps posted a 3-9 record last season.
A jump to four or five wins, from three, doesn’t seem like a bad peg on the surface. Analytical projections of Maryland’s skill level suggest the Terps will be very slightly better in 2016 than they were in 2015, after all. DJ Durkin’s recruiting like a madman, but the players on his 2016 roster won’t be meaningfully different than the ones who stumbled to nine losses under Randy Edsall and Mike Locksley last year.
And yet, my advice is to take the “over” on Maryland at 4.5 wins, and I don’t think it’s that hard a bet to make. That view comes down completely to scheduling.
The Terps’ schedule was brutally hard last year. This year, though, it’s easy.
Maryland starts its season against FCS opponent Howard, which figures to be a slam-dunk victory. The Terps then play road games against Central Florida and Florida International, who were two of the bar-none worst teams in FBS last year — even worse than Maryland. They’ve also got home games against three of the Big Ten’s worst teams (Purdue, Minnesota, Rutgers) and get to skip Wisconsin and Iowa, probably the two best teams in the Big Ten West.
It’s very easy to imagine Maryland getting to five or six wins without improving at all, just because the Terps have a lot of eminently beatable teams on their plate.
If Maryland only goes 4-8, it’ll be a tremendous disappointment, but that’s not especially likely. The over/under that’s likeliest to hit the mark for the 2016 Terps is something like an even 5 (if you’re willing to risk a push) or perhaps 5.5.
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