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10:58 pm
March 9, 2016
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Year-round followers of the NFL draft are already well aware Clemson Tigers quarterback Deshaun Watson is among a handful of prospects in contention to be the No. 1 pick in the 2017 NFL draft.
ESPN.com’s Mel Kiper Jr. recently ranked Watson fourth overall on his early big board, and as the only quarterback in Kiper’s top 10, Watson is a favorite for the No. 1 pick.
But it’s important to remember this is still an early projection, especially for a 20-year-old quarterback coming off his true-sophomore campaign.
When an early favorite to go No. 1 ends up falling in the following draft, we often hear comments along the lines of: “Well, if he had turned pro last year, he would have been a top-10 pick.” But these sentiments are almost always complete fiction and solely based on preseason mock drafts.
What gets lost in these hindsight assessments is that early big boards and mock drafts aren’t solely about what a player is today—they’re about what he will be 11 months from now.
Watson is a legitimate candidate to go No. 1 in next year’s draft, but there are two distinct factors in this judgment.
The first is based on the quarterback Watson is today. He is among the most talented signal-callers in the country and has already shown some NFL-ready traits. But the second—and perhaps the most important—is about the trajectory of his career path.
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
As of May 2016, Watson is not ready to play in the NFL. He has, however, shown considerable growth during his first two seasons at Clemson, and we assume that will continue into the 2016 season. So, based on where he is today and the course of his career, it’s reasonable to assume that by April 2017, Watson will be ready to advance to the pro game as a top pick.
Think of it like a young company’s stock. After two steady years of growth, there is optimism for the future. But you wouldn’t yet assume it has Google’s level of stability based on such a small sample. And that’s where we stand with Watson. He has the potential, and he’s shown the growth, but there’s still more to prove.
So rather than break down why Watson is a top prospect, let’s focus on what he needs to accomplish this season to earn a spot atop draft boards in 2017.
When watching Watson during the 2016 college football season, here are two of the most important areas to focus on to asses his development.
Anticipatory Throws
Unlike many young quarterbacks with his athleticism, Watson is a pocket passer first. While he does rack up yardage on the ground, a significant percentage comes on designed runs. So when he drops back to pass, Watson is genuinely looking to throw, which is a significant step in a quarterback’s development.
But Watson hasn’t quite reached the stage where he trusts what he sees from the pocket. Like many young quarterbacks, he’s more comfortable throwing to a receiver who is already open rather than one who can get open if the throw is placed correctly.
Here is an example of Watson passing up an opportunity to throw his receiver open against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game.
It’s 3rd-and-4 late in the first quarter. Clemson wide receiver Artavis Scott lines up wide and shows a slant route for about five yards, which forces Alabama linebacker Reggie Ragland to pass him off to the deep safety in that area of the field. But Scott then cuts back toward the sideline and gets behind Ragland.
Credit: draftbreakdown.com
At this point, Watson has a clear window to throw over Ragland and lead Scott toward the sideline for a big gain. Watson sees Scott and is ready to throw but can’t bring himself to pull the trigger. He ends up tucking the ball and running himself into pressure before escaping for a six-yard gain.
These are the types of anticipatory throws that Watson needs to be more comfortable making before he’s ready for the NFL. By NFL standards, Scott is wide open based on where he will be when the ball arrives, and Watson will be expected to make this throw every time.
Decisions Under Pressure
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
Watson has a tendency to hesitate when he’s in a clean pocket, but when facing pressure, he runs into the opposite issue.
As soon as he feels his option to tuck and run has been taken away, his decision-making becomes erratic and his movements panicked.
Perhaps the best example of this came during one of the biggest moments of Clemson’s 2015 season.
During the College Football Playoff semifinals against the Oklahoma Sooners, Watson faced a 3rd-and-8 deep in Oklahoma territory with his Tigers trailing 17-16.
Watson saw almost immediate pressure and rolled to his right. He could have thrown the ball away or even taken a sack, and Clemson would have had an opportunity to kick a field goal to take the lead.
Instead, he tossed a Hail Mary into the end zone that was intercepted by Sooners cornerback Zack Sanchez.
These types of poor decisions under pressure were a common theme throughout Watson’s 2015 season.
CFB Film Room on Wednesday shared Watson’s stats under pressure and offered up Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield as a comparison:
Deshaun Watson vs Baker Mayfield under pressure last season pic.twitter.com/uUP0aKZ8wW
— CFB Film Room (@CFBFilmRoom) May 18, 2016
The two quarterbacks faced different competition, but that doesn’t change the fact that Watson’s numbers show cause for concern and an area in which he will need to improve in 2016.
Final Thoughts
This assessment of Watson might sound overly negative, but keep in mind the intent is to highlight how he can get better. Both of these aspects of Watson’s game are related to decision-making, an area in which quarterbacks—even those well into their pro careers—are constantly working to learn and develop.
It would have been unreasonable to expect Watson, a true sophomore in 2015, to consistently display the decision-making ability of a veteran NFL quarterback. Even by the end of his 2016 season, pro scouts won’t expect perfection in these areas.
But they will be watching closely to see if Watson continues to show growth.
As long as he improves in these areas and continues to ascend as a prospect, Watson should land near the top of the first round when he chooses to enter the NFL draft.
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